Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2024]

In August 2024, Australian home values rose by 0.5%, marking the 19th consecutive month of growth, though the pace is slowing.

1. Sydney’s median price is now $1.18m, well above the next highest of Brisbane at $875k.
2. Perth is still powering, up 2.0% for August (5.7% the quarter), followed by Adelaide and Brisbane.
3. These regions continue to face high demand and low supply, keeping prices elevated.
4. Affordability is a major concern, as rising interest rates challenge buyers’ financing capacity.
5. Demand is shifting to more affordable areas, especially lower-priced properties.
6. National price growth slowed to 1.3% this quarter, less than half the rate of 2023.

For insights on how your local market is performing and your property’s value start here. 

Property Price Growth By City

This chart shows the percentage change in property values across different locations in Australia. Select the property type, time period, and whether to include regional areas to compare market trends.

All Dwellings Houses Units Show Regional

Month

Quarter

Annual

Total Return

Median Value

Month Quarter Annual Total Return Median Value

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released 2nd September 2024

Sydney

• Market Performance: Sydney’s home values grew modestly by 0.3% in August, resulting in an annual growth rate of 5.0%. The median dwelling value now stands at $1,180,463.
• Rental Market: Sydney’s annual rental growth for houses was 6.9%, reflecting a continued demand in the rental market despite affordability challenges.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Melbourne’s property market has been on a decline, with a 0.2% drop in August and a 1.2% decrease over the quarter. The city’s median dwelling value has now fallen to $776,044, making it the third lowest among Australian capitals.
• Key Insight: Melbourne’s housing market has been impacted by an increase in taxes on investment properties and a higher supply of housing, which has led to softer market conditions.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Brisbane continues to perform well with a 1.1% increase in August and an impressive 15.0% annual growth rate. The median dwelling value in Brisbane is $875,040.
• Affordability Concerns: Despite strong growth, there are signs that affordability is becoming an issue, which could slow future price increases.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide has seen robust growth, with a 1.4% increase in August and a 14.9% rise over the year. The median dwelling value in Adelaide is now $790,789, surpassing Melbourne’s.
• Investment Appeal: Adelaide’s strong market performance and lower median prices compared to other capitals continue to attract investors.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth leads the major capitals with a 2.0% increase in August and a remarkable 24.4% annual growth rate. The median dwelling value in Perth is $785,250.
• Outlook: Perth’s growth is driven by strong demand and limited supply, but there are concerns about how long this high growth can be sustained.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra saw a slight decline in home values, with a monthly drop of 0.4% in August 2024. The annual growth rate for Canberra is 1.5%, indicating a slower growth trend compared to other capital cities. The median dwelling value in Canberra stands at $845,875.
• Outlook: The outlook for Canberra’s property market suggests continued moderation in price growth, with potential further declines if economic conditions do not improve.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market Performance: In August 2024, Hobart saw a marginal decrease of 0.1% in home values, contributing to an overall annual decline of 1.2%. The median dwelling value in Hobart is now $655,114, reflecting the challenges in sustaining previous growth levels.
• Outlook: The outlook for Hobart suggests continued moderation in the housing market. With affordability constraints and reduced demand, significant price growth is unlikely in the near term. The market may continue to experience slight declines or stabilize at current levels.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market Performance: As of August 2024, Darwin saw a slight decline in dwelling values by 0.2% for the month and 0.3% over the quarter. The annual growth rate was modest at 1.6%, indicating a slower market compared to other regions in Australia. The median dwelling value in Darwin is approximately $504,367.
• Outlook: The outlook for Darwin’s property market remains cautious. The market is expected to continue experiencing slow growth or even minor declines in the near term, especially as affordability and economic conditions remain challenging. The overall market sentiment is likely to stay conservative unless there is a significant improvement in economic indicators or government interventions.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Regional Areas

• General Performance: Regional areas have generally seen slower growth compared to capital cities, with a 0.5% rise in August. However, certain regional markets, particularly in Western Australia, have experienced significant value increases.
• Popular Regions: Areas like the Richmond Valley in NSW and Bunbury in WA have seen some of the highest growth, with annual increases of 11.5% and 26.9%, respectively.

Australian Property Market Trends

Summary of housing values since the onset of COVID in March 2020 and relative to peak levels (onset of COVID calculated from March 2020).

Region	Onset of COVID to August 2024 (%)	Onset of COVID to August 2024 ($)	Change from Series Peak to August 2024	Series Peak Date
Sydney	28.80%	$263,838	<at peak>	Aug-24
Melbourne	10.10%	$71,196	-4.90%	Mar-22
Brisbane	65.10%	$344,896	<at peak>	Aug-24
Adelaide	67.30%	$318,182	<at peak>	Aug-24
Perth	72.50%	$330,079	<at peak>	Aug-24
Hobart	27.20%	$140,172	-12.20%	Mar-22
Darwin	25.30%	$101,949	-6.00%	May-14
Canberra	31.30%	$201,558	-5.10%	May-22
Regional NSW	49.00%	$242,785	-3.00%	May-22
Regional Vic	31.50%	$135,675	-7.90%	May-22
Regional Qld	65.10%	$261,837	<at peak>	Aug-24
Regional SA	64.20%	$168,789	<at peak>	Aug-24
Regional WA	69.10%	$214,888	<at peak>	Aug-24
Regional Tas	46.30%	$162,636	-3.70%	May-22
Combined capitals	33.60%	$222,879	<at peak>	Aug-24
Combined regional	53.20%	$221,343	<at peak>	Aug-24
National	37.80%	$219,901	<at peak>	Aug-24

Australian Property Market Forecast

The Australian banks forecast:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics has also released a three year property price forecast.

City	Median Price* (Houses)	Median Price*(Units)	Total Price** (%) Growth (Houses)	Total Price ** (%) Growth (Units)
Sydney	$1.93M	$1.09M	18%	22%
Melbourne	$1.28M	$0.78M	21%	20%
Brisbane	$1.21M	$0.71M	19%	23%
Adelaide	$0.95M	$0.69M	16%	18%
Perth	$1.05M	$0.64M	30%	30%
Canberra	$1.17M	$0.75M	19%	20%
Hobart	$0.86M	$0.71M	13%	16%
Darwin	$0.70M	$0.46M	24%	26%
Combined Capitals	$1.34M	$0.87M	20%	21%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.
• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.
• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.
• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.
• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out. 

Australian Property Clock: Houses

Australian Property Clock: Units

Conclusion

Homeowners in Australia are witnessing diverse market conditions depending on their location.

While cities like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth are seeing strong growth, Melbourne is facing a decline, and Sydney is experiencing modest gains. Regional areas offer pockets of high growth, particularly in Western Australia.

For those considering buying, selling, or investing, understanding the local market dynamics is crucial to making informed decisions in this varied landscape.

Understand the property market with these next steps

1. Get your free property report for a property value estimate and local market conditions.
2. Get a personalised shortlist of the top performing local agents to sell or rent with confidence.
3. Secure a free property appraisal with a top local agent for an estimate of your property’s worth.