Darwin Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [April 2025]

Darwin’s housing market showed strong momentum in early 2025, with a 1.0% monthly increase in dwelling values for March—the highest among capital cities. This growth suggests improving sentiment and a resilient local market, supported by more favorable borrowing conditions post the February rate cut.

Darwin Property Price Growth

Over the past quarter, Darwin dwelling values rose 2.8%, and 2.6% year-on-year, indicating steady medium-term growth. Notably, houses outperformed units, with annual house values up 4.4%, while units saw a -1.0% decline.

The median dwelling value in Darwin now sits at $519,287, with houses at $603,669 and units at $366,774—making it one of the more affordable capital cities.

CoreLogic Home Value Index

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on 1st April 2025

Darwin Property Market Trends

Darwin continues to recover gradually from longer-term stagnation. Values remain -4.1% below their prior peak from May 2014, and over the past decade, Darwin’s dwelling values have actually declined by -1.0%, highlighting its lagging long-term performance compared to other capitals.

Despite this, Darwin boasts a robust gross rental yield of 6.6%, the highest of all capitals, signaling strong investor appeal, particularly in the house segment (6.0%).

Change in dwelling values over key time periods

Darwin Property Market Forecast

While continued growth is likely in the short term, driven by improved sentiment and housing shortages, Darwin’s long-term outlook may remain modest. Challenges include slower population growth, historical volatility, and relatively lower capital gains over time. However, high yields and affordability could attract investors and first-home buyers.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

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Conclusion for Homeowners

Darwin is showing short-term strength and signs of renewed optimism, leading the monthly growth rates among capital cities. Its affordable entry point, rising returns, and improving sentiment position it as a potential opportunity, especially for yield-focused investors. Yet, long-term caution is warranted due to its historical underperformance and continued lag behind peak levels.

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