Darwin Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [December 2024]

Darwin’s property market showed modest activity in November 2024, with dwelling values rising by 0.2% for the month but declining by -0.7% over the quarter. The annual growth rate sits at a low 0.9%, reflecting slow recovery compared to other capitals. The median dwelling value in Darwin is now $496,860.

Darwin Property Price Growth

Darwin experienced slight monthly growth but remains one of the weakest-performing markets annually. The city has faced challenges in sustaining value increases, with minimal demand growth and ongoing affordability constraints.

CoreLogic Home Value Index

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on December 1, 2024

Darwin Property Market Trends

The rental market in Darwin remains a relative bright spot, with gross rental yields standing at 6.8%, the highest among the capital cities. However, weaker demand for units and slower population growth have tempered price growth.

Summary of housing values since the onset of COVID in March 2020 and relative to peak levels (onset of COVID calculated from March 2020).

Darwin Property Market Forecast

Darwin’s market is expected to remain subdued in the near term, with low migration rates and affordability pressures limiting buyer activity. Economic conditions, such as labour market trends and inflation, will heavily influence future demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

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Conclusion for Homeowners

Darwin homeowners should remain cautious, as the market continues to face challenges. For sellers, understanding local market conditions and timing decisions strategically will be key to achieving the best outcomes in a slow-moving market.

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