Darwin Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [November 2024]

Darwin’s property market continued to face challenges in October 2024, recording a decline of -1.0% in monthly dwelling values and a -1.3% decrease over the past quarter. This reflects ongoing struggles in maintaining market growth compared to other Australian cities.

Darwin Property Price Growth

Darwin saw minimal change in annual dwelling values, registering a slight -0.1% drop. The current median dwelling value is $492,692. This decline is in contrast to other capitals experiencing stronger year-on-year gains.

CoreLogic Home Value Index

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on November 1, 2024

Darwin Property Market Trends

Weaker migration trends and reduced demand have impacted Darwin’s market performance. The high rate of loss-making sales, particularly in the unit segment, continues to challenge market stability. The unit market has shown particular vulnerability, reflecting subdued buyer interest and competition from more affordable housing markets in other regions.

Summary of housing values since the onset of COVID in March 2020 and relative to peak levels (onset of COVID calculated from March 2020).

Darwin Property Market Forecast

The outlook for Darwin suggests a continuation of soft market conditions due to ongoing economic challenges and low migration rates. Without significant shifts in demand or economic drivers, recovery may remain limited in the near term. Affordability pressures and competition from other markets may further limit growth potential.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

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Conclusion for Homeowners

Darwin’s property market is expected to stay subdued, with slow recovery anticipated. Homeowners should remain cautious, monitoring local economic conditions and market shifts closely as the area continues to face headwinds.

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