Darwin Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [May 2025]

Darwin’s property market has demonstrated noticeable momentum recently, leading the country with a monthly dwelling value increase of 1.1% in April. This performance contributed to a quarterly rise of 3.4% and an annual growth rate of 2.5%. Despite these gains, Darwin’s home values remain 2.7% below their all-time peak, originally recorded back in May 2014.

The median dwelling value in Darwin now stands at $526,410, the lowest among the capital cities, reinforcing its relative affordability compared to other major markets.

Darwin Property Price Growth

• Monthly growth (April 2025): 1.1%
• Quarterly growth: 3.4%
• Annual growth: 2.5%
• Total return over 12 months: 9.1%

The Darwin market has also seen positive rental market dynamics, with annual rental growth strengthening from 3.2% a year ago to 5.0% most recently. This rental improvement supports the investment appeal of Darwin properties, especially given its gross rental yield of 6.6%, one of the highest among the capitals.

CoreLogic Home Value Index

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on 1st May 2025

Darwin Property Market Trends

Darwin’s current uplift is driven by:

• A small base effect, following several years of subdued performance.
• A renewed lift in rental returns, making it attractive for investors.
• Relative affordability compared to larger cities, which may be luring both first-home buyers and investors seeking higher yields.

However, Darwin still faces broader challenges such as slower population growth and a relatively cautious lending environment, which temper the sustainability of rapid price rises.

In a sector breakdown:

• Houses saw a 1.0% monthly gain, with an annual increase of 4.3%.
• Units outperformed houses slightly on a monthly basis with a 1.2% rise, although they remain down by -1.1% over the year.

Change in dwelling values over key time periods

Darwin Property Market Forecast

Short-term projections for Darwin remain cautiously optimistic. The city’s housing values are expected to continue on an upward trajectory, albeit at a moderated pace compared to the strong April showing. Further interest rate cuts and improvements in consumer sentiment could buoy the market slightly, though stretched affordability and external economic uncertainties may act as headwinds.

Rental demand is anticipated to stay firm, supporting ongoing yield-driven investment interest, especially given Darwin’s superior yield profile compared to other capitals.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

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Conclusion for Homeowners

Darwin’s property market is currently experiencing a notable rebound, outperforming many of its peers in terms of short-term value growth. Strong rental yields and affordable property prices continue to make it a compelling option for investors. However, its growth prospects will be closely tied to broader economic movements, interest rate settings, and local demand dynamics in the coming months.

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