Sydney Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [March 2026]

Sydney remains Australia’s priciest housing market, with the typical dwelling valued around $1.296 million. After a strong run, conditions have recently levelled out: values were flat over the latest month and slightly lower over the quarter (-0.1%), while still holding a 6.0% annual gain. Over the longer cycle, Sydney is effectively back near peak levels (about 0.1% below the prior high) and has recorded 31.1% growth over the past five years, reflecting the city’s enduring demand base and constrained supply, even as affordability and borrowing capacity act as clear brakes on momentum.

Performance continues to diverge by segment. Houses sit at a median of about $1.607 million, compared with units at roughly $903,000, and income-oriented buyers tend to find relatively better value in apartments, with gross rental yields around 4.1% for units versus 2.6% for houses (about 3.0% across all dwellings). In this environment, growth is typically more resilient at the lower end of the market, where competition is strongest and pricing is more accessible, while higher-priced segments are more sensitive to serviceability constraints.

Highlights

• Median dwelling value is $1,296,039, and values are up 6.0% over the past year despite a flat February result.
• Growth has stalled recently, with values at 0.0% for the month and -0.1% over the rolling quarter.
• The market is only 0.1% below its peak (Nov 2025), showing resilience even as conditions cool.
• Demand is strongest at lower price points, where competition is higher and borrowing constraints bite less.
• New listing flow has lifted, suggesting more vendors are testing the market as selling conditions soften.
• Supply remains tight overall, which helps limit downside risk even when sentiment weakens.

See how Sydney’s property values have performed across houses and units over various timeframes, along with returns, yields, and median prices.

Watch CoreLogic’s February 2026 Housing Market Update for expert commentary on national and capital city housing trends, price movements, and key market drivers across Sydney.

Sydney Property Price Growth

The latest read shows a market catching its breath. Values were flat in February and down slightly over the past three months, but the annual result remains positive at 6.0%, reflecting the strength of the earlier upswing. Total returns are higher once rents are considered, helped by a gross yield around 3%.

Over a longer lens, values have delivered strong growth over the past five years, and the city is still only marginally below its most recent peak. That mix of strong multi-year growth and a near-peak starting point matters, because it raises the hurdle for further gains unless borrowing capacity, confidence, or supply conditions shift meaningfully.

Sydney Property Market Trends

The clearest theme is segmentation by affordability. Lower-priced stock is attracting more competition, while higher-priced segments are seeing demand thin out as serviceability constraints limit how far buyers can stretch. In practical terms, that tends to show up as better price performance in entry and mid-market suburbs compared with prestige markets.

Supply dynamics are also shifting, but not enough to remove the underlying shortage. Overall advertised stock remains tight relative to typical levels, yet new listings have picked up, suggesting more vendors are motivated and trying to get ahead of softer selling conditions. If that lift in new supply continues, it can reduce some heat in negotiation, especially in segments where demand is already slowing.

The table outlines CoreLogic’s Home Value Index as of 28th February 2026, showing peak declines, five-year growth, and changes since the start of previous rate hiking cycle in May 2022.

Sydney Property Market Forecast

Near-term conditions look finely balanced. On the one hand, affordability pressures remain a major constraint, with borrowing power affected by higher rates and serviceability rules. Softer sentiment and reduced willingness to take on larger repayments can lengthen decision-making and cap price growth, particularly at the top end.

On the other hand, supply is still constrained by historical standards, which limits the scope for broad-based price falls. Even if listing volumes rise, the market can remain supported when stock is scarce and forced selling is limited by relatively solid labour market conditions.

Overall, the most likely path is modest, uneven growth rather than a strong rebound. Lower-priced segments may continue to outperform because buyer competition concentrates there and policy support tends to be most effective at those thresholds. Higher-priced segments are more likely to remain softer until borrowing capacity improves or confidence strengthens materially.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

Conclusion

Current conditions point to a mature phase of the cycle: strong gains have already been banked, the market is near its peak, and recent price movement has flattened. That combination naturally increases sensitivity to interest rates, confidence, and the flow of new listings.

For buyers, the main takeaway is that negotiation power can vary sharply by price bracket, with better opportunities often appearing where affordability ceilings are binding. For sellers, improved outcomes are more likely where scarcity is still acute and buyer competition remains strong, while premium properties may need sharper pricing and stronger presentation to clear in a slower, more selective market.