Sydney Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2024]

Sydney’s property market continued its upward trend in August 2024, recording a 0.3% increase in housing values for the month. This marks a modest but consistent growth pattern, bringing the annual growth rate to 5.0%.

Although the market remains positive, the rate of increase has slowed compared to the rapid gains seen in previous years.

This slowdown suggests that Sydney’s market may be entering a phase of stabilization, where growth is more tempered and sustainable.

Sydney Property Price Growth

The median dwelling value in Sydney reached $1,180,463 in August 2024, reflecting ongoing demand in the city. However, the 0.3% monthly growth is relatively mild, especially when compared to the more robust increases seen in other Australian capitals like Perth and Adelaide, which saw growth rates of 2.0% and 1.4%, respectively.

Sydney’s slower growth rate can be attributed to the city’s high property prices, which are increasingly stretching affordability for buyers. Over the past year, Sydney has consistently seen price increases, but the pace has noticeably decelerated, indicating that the market might be approaching its peak.

CoreLogic Home Value Index

Sydney Property Market Trends

Sydney’s market trends show a clear shift towards more affordable areas, as high property prices in central and more desirable locations push buyers to seek value in other regions. Suburbs like Canterbury have seen significant growth, with an impressive 13.3% increase in property values over the past year. This trend highlights a growing demand for properties in traditionally lower-cost areas, driven by affordability constraints in more expensive parts of the city. Additionally, there is a noticeable shift in buyer behavior, with more interest in smaller, more affordable units compared to larger houses, as buyers adapt to the financial realities of Sydney’s housing market.

Summary of housing values since the onset of COVID in March 2020 and relative to peak levels (onset of COVID calculated from March 2020).

Top 10 Greater Sydney SA3’s with highest 12-month value growth – Dwellings

Top 10 Regional NSW SA3’s with highest 12-month value growth – Dwellings

Sydney Property Market Forecast

The forecast for Sydney’s property market points to continued growth, but at a more moderated pace. Affordability issues, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and high cost-of-living pressures, are expected to constrain future price increases.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

Conclusion for Homeowners

Sydney’s housing market is poised for steady but slower growth, moving away from the rapid price escalations of previous years.

The focus is increasingly shifting towards affordability, with buyers gravitating towards lower-cost areas and smaller properties. Homeowners and investors should be mindful of this trend and consider the impact of ongoing economic pressures, including interest rates and cost-of-living increases, on future property values.

While the market remains strong, the pace of growth is likely to be more measured, providing a more balanced environment for both buyers and sellers.

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