Canberra Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2026]

Canberra’s current decline reaches back to May 2022, with dwelling values still 5.2% below that peak after renewed weakness through winter. This continuity sets the capital apart from markets experiencing a more recent turn from record highs.

The latest downturn therefore compounds an existing correction rather than beginning a new one. Citywide softness also conceals sharply different local outcomes, making Canberra a selective market in which suburb-level performance and property type matter more than a single headline direction.

Key Takeaways

• Canberra’s long correction continues, with dwelling values 5.2% below their May 2022 peak after a 2.8% quarterly fall.
• Units fell less over the quarter, declining 1.7% compared with 3.2% for houses, although their annual result was weaker.
• Local performance diverged, ranging from 4.1% annual growth in Weston Creek to a 3.9% decline in North Canberra.
• House rents rose 4.0% annually, outpacing the 1.4% increase in unit rents.
• Near-term weakness remains likely, although constrained national housing supply should limit the correction.

Canberra Property Price Growth

Quarterly performance revealed a trade-off between property types. Unit values fell 1.7%, substantially less than the 3.2% house decline, yet units recorded the weaker annual result at -0.9% compared with -0.4% for houses. Across all dwellings, values declined 1.1% in August, 2.8% over the quarter and 3.1% year to date. The index was 0.4% lower annually and 5.2% beneath its May 2022 peak, while longer-term growth reached 6.3% over five years and 58.8% over ten.

Canberra’s median dwelling value was $864,998, comprising $1,007,652 for houses and $585,937 for units. Local outcomes were far from uniform across the published ACT SA3s. Weston Creek rose 4.1% annually and Tuggeranong gained 1.8%, whereas North Canberra fell 3.9%. Between those points, Gungahlin, Belconnen, Molonglo, South Canberra and Woden Valley all recorded declines, showing how pockets of growth coexist with broader weakness.

Canberra Property Market Trends

Market activity across the combined capitals provides the broader setting for Canberra. Advertised stock was 24% above a year earlier, while new listings were 6% lower. Most capitals also recorded longer selling times, larger vendor discounts and auction clearance rates below 50%, conditions that increased buyer choice without establishing the same measured results specifically for Canberra.

Rental growth split sharply by property type. Canberra house rents rose 4.0% annually, but unit rents increased just 1.4%. This gap is much wider than the difference in annual value movements and points to a stronger income-growth trend for detached housing than for apartments.

Yield outcomes reversed that order. The gross dwelling rental yield was 4.3%, with houses at 3.9% and units at 5.4%. Investors nationally are expected to place greater emphasis on higher-yield opportunities, which may increase the relevance of Canberra units even though their rent growth was weaker.

The table gives a quick look at how values are performing by region.

Canberra Property Market Forecast

National demand pressures are likely to extend Canberra’s weakness because the city enters the next phase with values already 5.2% below their 2022 peak. Higher rate risk, reduced borrowing capacity, falling real wages and pessimistic sentiment all point to subdued demand, while normalised population growth removes some support. New housing supply remains insufficient nationally, however, and relatively low unemployment should constrain widespread distressed selling. First-home buyer assistance may also support the more affordable end. The balance favours further near-term declines, but a measured correction remains more likely than a disorderly fall.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia (Reviewed September 2026):

• ANZ expects capital-city prices to decline in both 2026 and 2027. ANZ forecast coverage
• CBA expects further national price declines before a modest recovery during 2027. CBA housing outlook
• NAB forecasts lower prices across the eight capital cities in 2026. NAB Housing Monitor
• Westpac’s June forecast anticipates flat prices in 2026 and growth in 2027, although its September update warns of further downside. June Housing Pulse, September housing update

For the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, this means:

• A softer near-term outlook: The bank updates point to continued pressure on property prices, replacing the earlier expectation of broadly rising values. NAB.
• Different conditions between cities: Sydney and Melbourne face the largest forecast declines in CBA’s outlook, although weakness has also spread to Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. CBA.
• Borrowing costs remain important: The timing and strength of any recovery depend partly on interest rates. CBA’s forecast for modest growth in 2027 assumes rate cuts during that year. CBA.
• More negotiating room for buyers: Westpac reports rising listings and expects buyers to have greater bargaining power in many markets heading into spring. This is an interpretation of market conditions, not a guarantee for individual properties. Westpac.

Conclusion

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