Canberra Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2024]

The Canberra housing market has experienced a cooling period, with recent declines in home values reflecting broader national trends. Canberra’s housing market is impacted by several factors, including high interest rates, economic pressures, and changes in migration patterns.

Canberra Property Price Growth

Canberra saw a slight decline in home values, with a monthly drop of 0.4% in August 2024. The annual growth rate for Canberra is 1.5%, indicating a slower growth trend compared to other capital cities. The median dwelling value in Canberra stands at $845,875.

CoreLogic Home Value Index

Canberra Property Market Trends

Recent trends in Canberra’s property market highlight a shift in demand dynamics, with a reduced buyer pool due to affordability challenges. The market is also experiencing a higher supply of properties, particularly in the unit segment, which has contributed to downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the migration trends to and from Canberra have been weaker, impacting overall demand.

Summary of housing values since the onset of COVID in March 2020 and relative to peak levels (onset of COVID calculated from March 2020).

Top 10 Greater Canberra SA3’s with highest 12-month value growth – Dwellings

Canberra Property Market Forecast

The outlook for Canberra’s property market suggests continued moderation in price growth, with potential further declines if economic conditions do not improve. Affordability constraints and high interest rates are likely to keep demand subdued, while the supply of available properties may remain relatively high, especially in the unit market.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

Conclusion for Homeowners

Canberra’s housing market is currently in a phase of slow growth with potential risks on the horizon. Homeowners and investors should be cautious, keeping an eye on broader economic indicators and local market conditions, as these will be critical in determining the direction of the market in the coming months.

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