Canberra Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [May 2025]

Canberra’s housing market has demonstrated moderate movement in April 2025. Dwelling values rose 0.4% over the month, placing the ACT capital in the mid-range of performance among Australian cities. The median dwelling value now stands at $864,343, with houses at $977,737 and units at $594,602.

Despite the recent uptick, the market remains 6.4% below its peak reached in May 2022, reflecting a longer-term correction following the pandemic-driven surge in prices​.

Canberra Property Price Growth

The quarterly growth for Canberra dwellings was 0.6%, which is among the lower rates across the capitals. On an annual basis, prices declined -0.6%, marking Canberra as one of only a few capitals with negative year-on-year change. This soft performance reflects ongoing affordability constraints and tempered buyer demand.

Within housing segments:

• House values fell slightly over the year (-0.5%).
• Unit values experienced a sharper drop (-1.2%).
• Quarterly growth was higher in units (+1.5%) than houses (+0.4%), suggesting some price resilience in the apartment sector​.

CoreLogic Home Value Index

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on 1st May 2025

Canberra Property Market Trends

Despite the subdued growth figures, Canberra’s market is showing subtle signs of stabilization:

• Gross rental yields have improved slightly to 4.1% for all dwellings.
• Rents remain relatively weak, with annual rental growth for houses at just 1.6% and for units 1.6% as well—among the lowest nationally​.
• The subdued rental and value growth indicates balanced market conditions, where neither investors nor owner-occupiers dominate decisively.

Suburb-level performance varies:

• Molonglo saw the strongest growth at +3.0% annually.
• Tuggeranong, Belconnen, and South Canberra were mostly flat or slightly positive.
• North Canberra and Gungahlin recorded small declines of -2.0%​.

Change in dwelling values over key time periods

Canberra Property Market Forecast

The outlook for Canberra remains cautiously optimistic:

• A likely May interest rate cut and post-election stability may foster buyer confidence.
• However, housing affordability challenges persist. The national housing value-to-income ratio remains high, and Canberra is no exception, with households needing over 10 years to save a 20% deposit under current conditions.
• Building commencements are down significantly, hinting at continued undersupply, which could underpin values over the medium term.

CoreLogic notes that uncertain conditions tend to affect sales and listings volume more than prices, so while activity might remain tepid, prices are expected to trend modestly upward​

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

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Conclusion for Homeowners

Canberra’s housing market is in a phaCanberra’s property market is in a phase of subdued recovery. Following declines from its 2022 peak, the market is showing early signs of rebalancing, with modest price rises in April and stable rental conditions. However, the city remains one of the few capitals with negative annual growth, and its path forward will hinge on broader economic shifts, including interest rate movements and federal housing policy outcomes.

If affordability constraints ease and demand is bolstered by policy support, Canberra could return to a firmer growth footing later in 2025.

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