Canberra Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2026]

Canberra’s housing market has entered spring on the back foot, with falling values and slower demand handing buyers greater leverage. The capital recorded a 1.1% drop in August, putting sellers under more pressure to meet the market.

Yet the picture is uneven. Houses and units are both softening, while several districts still retain annual gains and rental income remains supportive.

For homeowners, the question is how far buyer caution and accumulating stock will influence the next sale. The analysis below separates recent price movements from the forces likely to shape the months ahead.

Key Takeaways

• Canberra recorded a 1.1% monthly fall, with dwelling values down 2.8% over the quarter and 0.4% over the year.
• Houses weakened faster, falling 1.2% during August compared with a 0.6% decline for units.
• Buyer leverage is rising as advertised stock accumulates and auction clearance rates remain below 50%.
• Rental support remains, with house rents rising 4.0%, unit rents increasing 1.4% and gross dwelling yields reaching 4.3%.
• Further easing is likely, although limited new housing and first-home buyer support should help contain the downturn.

Canberra Property Price Growth

Momentum turned lower through winter. Canberra dwelling values fell 1.1% in August, 2.8% over three months and 3.1% in 2026. The annual result slipped 0.4%, while values were 5.2% below their May 2022 peak.

The split by property type shows houses carrying more of the decline. House values dropped 1.2% for the month and 3.2% for the quarter, compared with falls of 0.6% and 1.7% for units. Median values stood at $1,007,652 for houses and $585,937 for units, versus $864,998 across all dwellings.

Long-term growth remains positive despite the correction: values are 6.3% higher over five years and 58.8% higher over a decade. Performance also varies by district. Weston Creek led annual gains at 4.1%, followed by Tuggeranong at 1.8%, while North Canberra fell 3.9%.

Canberra Property Market Trends

Activity now resembles a buyer’s market. Across capital cities, advertised stock was 24% higher than a year earlier and 8% above the five-year average, despite fewer new listings. Slower absorption, longer selling times, larger discounts and clearance rates below 50% are giving Canberra buyers more choice and forcing vendors to price realistically.

Rentals support ownership. Canberra house rents rose 4.0% over the year and unit rents 1.4%, while the gross dwelling yield reached 4.3%. Houses yielded 3.9% and units 5.4%, a gap likely to steer some investors toward apartments, though financing costs continue to squeeze cash flow.

High mortgage rates, constrained borrowing capacity and weak confidence continue to suppress transactions. Low unemployment and scarce new housing temper forced selling, but buyers can remain selective while demand is subdued.

The table gives a quick look at how values are performing by region.

Canberra Property Market Forecast

Near-term values should remain downward, with modest falls more probable than a spring rebound. Demand is constrained by high mortgage rates, reduced borrowing capacity, weak real wages and cautious sentiment, while a possible rate increase adds downside risk. Canberra’s 2.8% winter decline captures the momentum without implying a severe correction.

Losses should stay contained. New housing supply remains inadequate, unemployment is low and first-home buyer support can underpin the affordable end. Sellers may hold back if conditions worsen, restricting fresh stock. The balance points to continued softness over coming months, but not a collapse unless employment or interest-rate conditions deteriorate.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s ongoing adjustments to interest rates will likely play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics, as higher borrowing costs limit purchasing power for many buyers.

Here are some of the most recent forecasts by the big-4 banks in Australia:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics recently released property forecasts predicting where house prices will be in three years.

Conclusion

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