Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [April 2026]

Sydney

• Market performance: Sydney’s housing market is showing subdued performance, with values edging lower as momentum softens and selling conditions become more balanced amid a gradual lift in available stock.
• Key Insights: More broadly, buyer caution appears tied to stretched affordability and tighter borrowing capacity, while softer auction conditions and greater choice are reducing urgency, especially across higher-priced parts of the market.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Across Melbourne, housing conditions remained soft, with dwelling values edging lower and the city continuing to underperform stronger capital markets.
• Key Insights: The market appears shaped by weaker buyer urgency, rising available listings and tighter affordability, which together are contributing to more balanced negotiating conditions.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Across the latest housing cycle, Brisbane remained one of the stronger capital-city markets, with dwelling values rising over both shorter and longer periods and overall conditions still consistent with a market at peak levels.
• Key Insights: Rather than being driven by a single pocket, Brisbane’s performance appears relatively broad-based, with several submarkets across Greater Brisbane also recording firm gains, indicating demand has been spread across multiple parts of the city.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide kept building on its upward momentum, with dwelling values continuing to rise as the mid-sized capitals outperformed the softer conditions unfolding in Sydney and Melbourne.
• Key Insights: The city’s pricing resilience has been supported by a shortage of homes for sale, with leaner listings than is usually seen keeping competition firmer locally even while several other capital-city markets have lost some heat.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: In Perth, housing values continued to strengthen more quickly than in many other capitals, underscoring a market that remained notably resilient while some larger cities lost momentum.
• Key Insights: A defining feature of Perth has been persistently tight supply, with limited advertised stock helping maintain competitive conditions and reinforcing the city’s stronger value growth.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra’s housing market is recording measured value growth, indicating a steadier performance profile than the stronger momentum seen across several other capital-city markets.
• Key Insights: The city stands apart from most capitals because lower-priced housing is not clearly leading the market, suggesting demand is less concentrated at the entry-level end.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market performance: Hobart’s housing market continued to edge higher, reflecting steady value growth and a market that is moving forward without matching the stronger upswing seen in several faster-running capitals.
• Key insights: In contrast to cities where lower-priced stock is driving the clearest gains, Hobart shows a more balanced pattern across value segments, suggesting demand is not as concentrated at one end of the market.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market performance: Darwin’s housing market continued to show clear momentum, with value growth outpacing many larger capitals and indicating conditions that remained comparatively resilient across the period.
• Key insights: In contrast to softer conditions elsewhere, Darwin’s key market traits include relatively strong rental returns and growth that appears supported across both the urban core and surrounding suburban areas.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Here are the key takeaways from the latest value trends across capitals and regions, showing long-term growth, recent momentum, and where each market sits in the cycle.

• Australia’s housing market remains broadly expansionary, with the national index sitting at a record high, up 40.2% over the past five years and 2.1% in the March quarter 2026.
• Market performance is still highly uneven by geography, with the strongest momentum concentrated in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide. Perth is the clear standout, delivering 7.3% quarterly growth and a remarkable 91.2% rise over five years.
• Regional markets continue to outperform the capitals in aggregate, with combined regional values up 3.3% over the quarter compared with 1.8% across combined capitals. Over five years, regional markets have risen 53.0%, well ahead of the 36.5% increase across the capitals.
• Strength across regional Australia is particularly evident in Regional WA, Regional SA and Regional Qld, which have all posted strong quarterly gains and remain at peak. Regional Tas also recorded a robust 5.2% quarterly increase, highlighting the breadth of regional resilience.
• The weakest conditions remain in Melbourne and Sydney, where values are below recent peaks and quarterly growth has turned negative. Melbourne is 1.3% below its March 2022 peak and fell 0.6% in the quarter, while Sydney is 0.4% below its November 2025 peak and eased 0.2% over the quarter.
• Melbourne remains the clear long-term laggard among the capitals, with just 8.5% growth over the past five years, a sharp contrast to the much stronger gains recorded in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.
• Some previously softer markets are showing signs of stabilisation rather than renewed weakness. Hobart, while still 2.9% below its March 2022 peak, recorded 2.5% quarterly growth, and Canberra also posted a modest quarterly rise despite remaining below peak.
• Overall, the table points to a market that is still rising nationally, but increasingly driven by affordability-led and supply-constrained markets, while the larger, more expensive east coast capitals appear to be moving into a slower or slightly corrective phase.

How to read these figures:

Sydney (-0.4% from peak; peak in Nov-25) shows the market remains close to its record high, despite a slight pullback from its peak; +25.4% over the past five years points to solid longer-term growth; and -0.2% over the March quarter 2026 indicates a modest easing in values.

Australian Property Market Forecast

Australia’s property market is likely to remain positive in aggregate, but the next phase looks slower, patchier and far less uniform than the broad upswing seen in stronger cycles. Sydney and Melbourne appear set to stay soft as affordability, borrowing limits and rising listings weigh on demand, while more affordable capitals and selected regional markets should continue to show greater resilience.

The main forces are clear: stretched affordability, high interest rates, cost of living pressure and weaker confidence are curbing buyer urgency, especially at the upper end. Even so, tight supply, solid employment and ongoing support for first home buyers should help prevent a sharper correction, leaving the market tilted toward slower growth and more selective pockets of strength rather than a broad retreat.

The Australian banks forecast:

• • ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.

• • CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.

• • NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.

• • Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.

• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.

• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.

• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

Houses Clock Key Takeaways

Units Clock Key Takeaways 

• The national units market is broadly weighted toward growth, with many locations sitting in the rising market phase.

• Rising markets include several major and regional centres such as Adelaide, Brisbane, Darwin, Gold Coast, Hobart, Perth, Mackay, Rockhampton, Townsville and Wodonga.

• A smaller group is approaching peak of the market, including Gladstone, Mildura, Port Hedland, Shepparton, Sunshine Coast and Whitsunday.

• Peak of market locations include Bundaberg, Burnie/Devonport, Mount Gambier, Sydney and Toowoomba. Sydney is shown in blue, indicating its position has changed from last month.

• Starting to decline markets are limited to Alice Springs, Bathurst and Launceston, suggesting only a few unit markets are beginning to lose momentum.

• Port Macquarie is positioned as approaching bottom of market, indicating weaker conditions but potentially nearing the end of its downturn phase.

• Ballina/Byron Bay and Southern Highlands are at the bottom of market, suggesting these unit markets are at the lowest point in the cycle.

• Canberra, Central Coast, Geelong, Lismore, Melbourne and Newcastle are in start of recovery, pointing to early signs of improvement after softer conditions.

• Overall, the units clock suggests stronger momentum across many affordable and regional markets, while only a handful of locations are shown as declining or near the bottom of the cycle.

Conclusion

Overall, the Australian property market remains resilient, but momentum is becoming more uneven across regions and price points. More affordable cities and lower priced segments are still benefiting from tight supply and steady demand, while higher value markets are showing signs of softer conditions as buyers become more cautious. This suggests the market is shifting away from broad based growth and toward a more selective environment where local fundamentals matter more than national averages.

Looking ahead, affordability pressures, borrowing constraints, elevated living costs, and weaker sentiment are likely to keep a lid on stronger price growth. At the same time, limited housing supply, low unemployment, and ongoing demand for lower cost homes should help prevent a sharp correction in most areas. In this environment, the outlook is best described as stable but fragmented, with modest gains still possible in undersupplied and relatively affordable markets, while premium segments face greater headwinds.