Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [August 2026]

Sydney

• Market performance: Sydney recorded the sharpest decline among the capitals, with weakness extending across houses and units and leaving overall values further below their recent high after several months of softer demand.
• Key Insights: Outer western and south-western districts remained comparatively resilient, while lower rental yields, weaker auction conditions and cautious seller activity reinforced the uneven character of the city’s broader adjustment.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Melbourne continued to soften, with houses declining more than units and overall values remaining well below their earlier peak despite scattered strength across selected fringe and lower-priced suburbs.
• Key Insights: Rental yields were comparatively attractive among the major capitals, although rent growth was moderate and the strongest housing results remained concentrated in outer western and north-western districts.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: After a long period of strength, Brisbane moved further into decline, although its annual performance remained comparatively firm and units held up better than houses across the latest period.
  
• Key Insights: Growth was still evident across several outer and middle-ring districts, particularly around Logan, Ipswich and the northern corridor, while rental growth remained above the national average.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide eased slightly after sustained gains, with house values softening and unit values broadly steady, while its longer-term performance remained stronger than that of the largest capitals.
  
• Key Insights: Broad-based strength remained visible across south-eastern, south-western and north-western districts, while rental growth stayed elevated and units continued to outperform houses across the metropolitan market.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth edged higher after an earlier setback, preserving the strongest annual result among the capitals even as momentum became less consistent across recent months and property types.
• Key Insights: Underlying strength is still visible, especially across outer and more affordable areas, but downward data revisions point to a market that is no longer accelerating.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra remained under pressure, with houses weakening more than units and the broader market still sitting notably below its previous peak despite limited growth over the year.
• Key Insights: Rental growth was the softest among the capitals, while stronger housing results were concentrated in outer districts and several inner and central areas continued to record declines.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market performance: Hobart posted a modest rise and maintained positive quarterly momentum, although values remained below their earlier peak and units were softer than houses over the latest month.
• Key insights: Rental growth was comparatively strong, yields remained supportive, and the best housing outcomes were concentrated in outer districts, with inner Hobart recording more subdued annual performance.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market performance: Darwin delivered the strongest monthly and quarterly performance among the capitals, with houses and units both advancing and overall values returning to their current high after sustained recent gains.
• Key insights: Its rental market also stood out, combining the strongest rent growth with the highest capital-city yield, while the city’s main submarkets recorded broadly consistent annual gains.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Here are the key takeaways from the latest value trends across capitals and regions, showing long-term growth, recent momentum, and where each market sits in the cycle

• National dwelling values sit 2.0% below their peak, while remaining 27.9% higher over five years and 70.7% higher over ten years.
• Sydney and Melbourne have experienced the largest capital-city declines from peak, down 5.3% and 5.5% respectively, highlighting greater weakness in the two largest markets.
• Perth has delivered the strongest five-year growth among the capitals at 85.5%, followed by Brisbane at 71.2% and Adelaide at 68.5%.
• Darwin is the only capital currently at its peak, although its longer-term growth has been more moderate, rising 30.3% over five years and 32.5% over ten years.
• Regional markets have outperformed the capitals over longer periods, with combined regionals up 42.7% over five years and 101.7% over ten years, compared with 23.5% and 62.3% for combined capitals.
• Regional Western Australia recorded the strongest five-year regional growth at 88.8%, while Regional Tasmania led over ten years at 120.5%. Regional Northern Territory remained the weakest market across both timeframes.

Australian Property Market Forecast

Australian property values are likely to remain under downward pressure in the near term as weaker demand spreads beyond the largest capitals. Affordability constraints, reduced borrowing capacity, higher household costs, cautious consumer sentiment and elevated advertised stock are giving buyers more choice and greater negotiating power.

The correction should remain uneven rather than severe. Higher-value and investor-heavy markets appear most exposed, while lower-priced areas may prove more resilient. Low unemployment, continued population growth, limited new housing supply and a pullback in vendor listings should help contain the decline, with inflation, interest rates and labour-market conditions shaping the market’s next phase.

The Australian banks forecast:

• • ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.

• • CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.

• • NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.

• • Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.

• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.

• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.

• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

Where House Markets Sit in the Cycle

Where Unit Markets Sit in the Cycle

• Unit markets remain broadly resilient, with Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Darwin, the Gold Coast and numerous regional centres continuing to rise.
• Brisbane and Coffs Harbour are approaching the peak, alongside Ipswich, the Sunshine Coast, Port Hedland and Whitsunday.
• Several regional markets are at the top of the cycle, including Bundaberg, Burnie/Devonport, Lismore, Mount Gambier and Toowoomba.
• Sydney has moved into the early stages of decline, together with Alice Springs, Bathurst and Launceston, while the Fraser Coast is already in a declining phase.
• Recovery is emerging in several major markets, with Melbourne, Canberra, Newcastle, Geelong and the Central Coast showing early signs of an upswing.
• Conditions remain weakest in a small group of coastal markets: Port Macquarie is approaching the bottom, while Ballina/Byron Bay and the Southern Highlands are positioned at the bottom of the cycle.

Conclusion

Australia’s housing market is entering a broader but uneven correction, shaped by affordability pressures, weaker confidence and reduced borrowing capacity. However, low unemployment, population growth and constrained housing supply should limit the risk of a severe downturn. The market is softening, not collapsing, and resilience will depend heavily on location, price point and buyer demand.