Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2026]

Sydney

• Market performance: Sydney recorded the sharpest capital-city decline over the month and winter quarter, with houses weakening more than units and annual performance moving firmly into negative territory across the broader market.
• Key Insights: Elevated advertised supply, slower selling conditions and reduced transaction activity shifted negotiating power toward buyers, while outer western and south-western districts showed greater resilience.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Across Melbourne, dwelling values continued to retreat over the month and winter quarter, extending the city’s longer-running weakness as houses underperformed units across monthly and annual measures.
• Key Insights: Relative strength was concentrated in selected north-western and western districts, while several other areas remained softer; unit rental yields also compared favourably with those in other large capitals.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Although Brisbane values declined through the month and winter quarter, annual growth remained strong, with units outperforming houses over the year after matching their monthly movement across the market.
  
• Key Insights: A pronounced slowdown in sales activity tempered conditions, yet the strongest local gains remained concentrated across western, Logan, Ipswich and Moreton Bay districts, highlighting persistent geographic variation overall.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Values in Adelaide eased over the month and quarter but retained solid annual growth, with house and unit performance remaining closely aligned across the main reporting periods overall.
  
• Key Insights: A notably tight rental market supported continuing rent growth, while comparatively modest value declines and broad gains across northern, southern and central districts showed a relatively balanced market.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: After leading annual growth among the capitals, Perth shifted into decline over the month and winter quarter, although both houses and units remained substantially stronger than a year earlier.
• Key Insights: Investor appeal remained supported by comparatively strong rental growth and yields, while slowing transaction activity contrasted with continued resilience across outer southern, eastern and north-western districts during the latest period.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Renewed weakness placed Canberra among the softer capitals over the month and winter quarter, with annual values slightly lower and houses declining faster than units across the broader market.
• Key Insights: Weston Creek and Tuggeranong were comparatively resilient as northern and southern districts weakened, while subdued unit rent growth contrasted with relatively attractive rental yields overall.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market performance: Hobart’s market was broadly stable through winter despite a small monthly decline, with annual growth remaining positive and units outperforming houses over the latest quarter across the broader market.
• Key insights: A clear divide persisted beneath the headline result: northern districts recorded stronger annual gains than the inner city, while relatively healthy rental yields added support for investors overall.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market performance: Standing apart from the broader downturn, Darwin values rose over both the month and winter quarter, remained at a record high and retained strong annual momentum across dwellings.
• Key insights: Rental conditions reinforced that relative strength, with leading rent growth and the highest capital-city yields, while gains were shared across the city, suburbs and Palmerston over the same period.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Australian dwelling values fell for a fifth consecutive month in August, with the national index declining 0.9% as the downturn spread across 93% of capital-city suburbs. Weakness remained more pronounced in the capitals, while regional markets recorded smaller declines and retained stronger annual growth.

Combined-capital values fell 1.1% during August, compared with a smaller 0.4% decline across combined regional markets.

Buyer and Seller Conditions

As demand has weakened, advertised stock has accumulated, homes are taking longer to sell and auction clearance rates remain below 50%. Buyers therefore have greater choice and negotiating scope, while vendors face pressure to price realistically and allow longer selling periods.

Long-Term Home Value Performance

Here are the key takeaways from the latest value trends across capitals and regions, showing long-term growth, recent momentum, and where each market sits in the cycle

• National dwelling values were 3.6% below their March 2026 peak, confirming that the recent downturn has unwound only part of earlier growth.
• Sydney was furthest below its peak at 7.1%, followed by Melbourne at 6.8% and Canberra at 5.2%.
• Perth was the strongest five-year capital-city market, rising 79.7%, while Melbourne was the weakest and the only capital below its five-year level, down 3.9%.
• Brisbane led capital-city growth over ten years at 111.8%, while Melbourne recorded the weakest result at 26.6%.
• Combined regionals outperformed combined capitals over five and ten years and remained considerably closer to their recent peak.
• Regional WA led five-year regional growth at 85.4%, while Regional Tasmania was strongest over ten years at 120.8%; Regional Victoria was weakest over both periods.
• Darwin and Regional SA were the only markets identified as being at record highs.

Rental Market Conditions

National rents rose 0.4% in August and 5.7% over the year. The monthly increase matched July and remained broadly in line with the average pace of the previous two years, indicating stable rather than accelerating growth. Although the vacancy rate increased, rental availability remained historically tight and continued to support rent increases. Rising rents and falling dwelling values lifted the national gross yield to 3.79%, improving income returns for investors while renters faced sustained affordability pressure. Yields across the larger capitals remained below levels generally required to offset elevated holding costs.

• Annual national rental growth: 5.7%
• National vacancy rate: 1.9%, compared with the pre-COVID decade average of 3.3%
• Gross rental yields: National 3.8%; combined capitals 3.6%; combined regionals 4.3%

Darwin recorded the strongest annual rental growth for houses at 12.0% and units at 10.5%. Canberra recorded the weakest results at 4.0% and 1.4%, respectively.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

Where House Markets Sit in the Cycle

Where Unit Markets Sit in the Cycle

• Rising conditions remain broad: Darwin and Hobart sit in the rising phase alongside Gold Coast, Mackay, Townsville, Esperance and Karratha.
• Late-cycle positions are prominent: Adelaide and Perth are approaching peak, while Albury, Bundaberg, Burnie/Devonport and Toowoomba sit at peak.
• Early declines are concentrated: Brisbane and Sydney are starting to decline alongside Alice Springs, Illawarra and Launceston; no market is listed as declining.
• Lower-cycle positions are mixed: Canberra and Melbourne are starting recovery, Port Macquarie approaches bottom, while Ballina/Byron Bay and Southern Highlands sit at bottom.

Australian Property Market Forecast

Further softening is the most likely direction over the coming months. Sticky inflation and the possibility of another cash-rate increase should keep borrowing capacity constrained, while negative real wage growth, subdued confidence, a gradually loosening labour market and normalised population growth are likely to hold demand below normal spring levels.

The correction should remain orderly rather than severe. New housing supply is still insufficient, construction costs and feasibility barriers limit completions, and relatively low unemployment reduces the risk of widespread forced sales. Support for first-home buyers through the 5% deposit scheme should also underpin the affordable segment, balancing some demand-side weakness without removing the broader downward pressure.

The Australian banks forecast:

• • ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.

• • CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.

• • NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.

• • Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.

• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.

• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.

• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Conclusion

In Hobart, the advantage has shifted from momentum to precision. Owners retain a meaningful equity cushion, while restrained demand and wider buyer choice require sellers to compete carefully. Limited new housing supply should contain downside risk, but success will depend on reading the immediate neighbourhood, setting an evidence-based price and responding decisively when genuine interest emerges.