Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2025]

Sydney

• • Market Performance: Sydney’s home values continued to firm in August, rising 0.8% for the month. Values are now at peak again, with a median dwelling value around $1.224m. Momentum since the February rate cut is positive but measured, as affordability and tight credit keep a lid on the pace of gains.

• • Key Insight: Sydney has re-established an up-trend: prices are at new highs, growth is steady, and competition is improving as spring listings return. The near-term outlook is one of incremental appreciation rather than boom-time acceleration, with investor yields still lean and performance varying by suburb cluster.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• • Market Performance: Melbourne’s recovery remains measured, with values edging +0.3% in August. The city is still ~3.0% below its prior peak (set in Mar-22), and the median dwelling value sits near $809k, keeping affordability relatively better than Sydney and Brisbane.

• • Key Insight: Melbourne is in a slow-and-sure upswing: prices are rising gently, rental momentum is rebuilding, and a handful of SA3s are outperforming. The near-term path points to incremental growth rather than a surge, with fundamentals improving but not overheated.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• • Market Performance: Brisbane continues to set the pace among the mid-sized capitals, rising 1.2% in August and returning to at peak values. Solid affordability relative to Sydney and tight advertised stock keep buyer competition firm, with gross dwelling yields around 3.6%.

• • Key Insight: Brisbane remains one of the cycle’s steady leaders: prices are rising, values are at new highs, rentals are firm, and select SA3s are outperforming. The near-term path looks like incremental, broad-based growth rather than a spike.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• • Market Performance: Adelaide’s upswing continued in August, with values rising 0.9% and remaining at peak. The median dwelling value sits around $851k, keeping the city relatively affordable versus the east-coast leaders while still marking a strong cycle-to-date performance.

• • Key Insight: Adelaide remains a steady leader of this cycle: prices are edging higher from a high base, rentals are tightening gradually, and several SA3s continue to outperform. The most probable path is incremental growth rather than a surge, with fundamentals supportive and risks contained.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• • Market Performance: Perth remains one of the standout housing markets in Australia. The city continues to post strong results compared to many eastern capitals, reflecting sustained buyer demand, affordability advantages, and healthy migration-driven population growth. Its housing market has also proven more resilient through interest rate changes, with values holding near peak levels.

• • Key Insight: Perth has cemented itself as a leader in the current housing cycle. Its 10.9% annual growth in dwelling values highlights the city’s resilience and attractiveness. With low supply, strong demand, and healthy rental yields, Perth is positioned for further gains, even as national growth moderates. While the pace may ease, Perth’s fundamentals point to a sustained and stable upward trend.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• • Market Performance: Canberra’s housing market shows modest recovery but remains well below its earlier peak. Dwelling values are still 4.6% under their May 2022 peak, highlighting that the city hasn’t regained the highs seen before interest rate tightening began. Despite this, Canberra’s property values are holding steady with evidence of renewed buyer activity and gradual improvement.

• • Key Insight: Canberra remains a relatively high-priced but slow-growing market. Its recovery is modest, and while housing values are edging upward, growth is far weaker than in most other capitals. Investors face constrained yields, and renters are seeing only mild increases. The outlook points to stability rather than acceleration — Canberra will likely continue to underperform stronger markets, yet avoid major declines thanks to restrained supply and consistent demand.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• • Market Performance: Hobart’s housing market is experiencing notable weakness compared to other Australian capitals. While most cities are recording steady gains, Hobart stands out for its ongoing softness. The city’s values remain 10.4% below their peak, reflecting a long-term decline in momentum.

• • Key Insight: Hobart remains in a weak position relative to other capital cities. Prices have continued to decline modestly, leaving values well below peak levels, even as national markets rise. The rental sector, however, shows resilience with solid rent increases, offering some relief for investors. Looking forward, Hobart’s housing outlook depends on whether affordability and supply constraints can be balanced against its improving rental appeal. For now, the market is subdued, but the stabilising rental environment may provide a platform for gradual recovery.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• • Market Performance: Darwin’s housing market has shown a steady improvement through 2025. In August, dwelling values rose 1.0%, bringing year-to-date gains to 10.8% — the strongest capital city growth rate so far this year. Despite volatility in recent years, Darwin remains attractive to investors, with lending into the city’s housing sector more than doubling over the past year.

• • Key Insight: Darwin’s housing market is in a strong phase, marked by nation-leading rental growth, double-digit year-to-date dwelling value gains, and exceptionally low stock levels. While national housing growth may ease into a more sustainable pace, Darwin’s unique combination of high yields, investor demand, and constrained supply suggests it will continue to outperform many other capitals through the remainder of 2025.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

This table highlights how dwelling values have changed across Australia over the past 5 years and since the first interest rate cut in February, showing which markets are still climbing and which ones have softened from their peak. It’s a helpful snapshot for understanding long-term growth and current momentum especially for identifying markets that are peaking and slowing.

Australian Property Market Forecast

The Australian banks forecast:

• • ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.

• • CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.

• • NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.

• • Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• • Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

• • Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.

• • Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.

• • Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.

• • Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

Conclusion

The Australian property market remains resilient, with national dwelling values up 4.1% year-on-year despite ongoing affordability pressures. While some markets like Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide continue to lead growth, others — including Melbourne and Hobart — have softened from their peaks. The first interest rate cut in February has added momentum, boosting buyer confidence and tightening stock levels.

However, growth is becoming more geographically uneven. Regional areas are showing strong gains, while some capital cities are entering a phase of moderation. Limited housing supply, rising rents, and construction sector constraints are likely to keep prices supported in the short term, but sustainability remains a key concern moving forward.

In essence, the market outlook combines steady demand, selective growth hotspots, and increasing pressure on affordability — setting the stage for a dynamic but competitive property landscape through the remainder of 2025.