Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [July 2026]

Sydney

• Market performance: Sydney recorded the clearest weakening among the capitals, with home values pulling back sharply and acting as the main drag on the national result.
• Key Insights: Buyer conditions have shifted noticeably as affordability constraints, softer auction outcomes and more available stock give households greater scope to compare options before committing.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Melbourne continued to lose momentum, with values easing across the month and quarter as demand remained subdued in an already softer cycle.
• Key Insights: The city’s weaker reading reflects persistent confidence and affordability pressures, while its relatively low long-term growth leaves the market more exposed to shifts in buyer sentiment.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Brisbane still posted a positive result, but the pace of growth has slowed materially from the stronger gains seen earlier in the year.
  
• Key Insights: Strength remains more evident than in the larger southern capitals, yet the latest trend shows buyers responding to stretched prices and broader demand headwinds.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance:Adelaide’s market held broadly steady over the month, with quarterly growth still positive but clearly less forceful than during its earlier upswing.
  
• Key Insights: The city remains one of the more resilient capitals, although slower momentum suggests affordability and cautious sentiment are starting to narrow the pool of active buyers.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth kept rising and remained one of the strongest capital markets, though its recent growth rate has eased from the rapid pace seen previously.
• Key Insights: Underlying strength is still visible, especially across outer and more affordable areas, but downward data revisions point to a market that is no longer accelerating.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra moved lower over the month and quarter, aligning more closely with Sydney and Melbourne than with the still-rising mid-sized capitals.
• Key Insights: A softer buyer backdrop is evident, with weaker price expectations and broader demand pressures weighing on activity despite the market retaining a relatively high median value.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market performance: Hobart recorded a modest rise, placing it ahead of the weaker southern markets while still showing signs that growth is becoming more measured.
• Key insights: Local conditions appear steadier than earlier in the cycle, supported by rental tightness and yield appeal, but momentum is not as broad-based as in faster-growing capitals.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market performance: Darwin delivered the strongest capital-city performance, with values continuing to climb through June while most larger capitals moved sideways or lower.
• Key insights: Its relative affordability, stronger rental yields and solid growth across suburbs helped distinguish the market from capitals facing heavier affordability and confidence constraints.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Here are the key takeaways from the latest value trends across capitals and regions, showing long-term growth, recent momentum, and where each market sits in the cycle.

• The national market is only modestly below its recent high, sitting 0.7% below the March 2026 peak, while still showing substantial longer-term gains of 31.3% over five years and 73.7% over ten years.
• Capital city markets are softer than regional areas, with combined capitals 1.3% below peak, compared with combined regionals still at peak and up 46.0% over five years.
• Sydney and Melbourne are the clearest underperformers among the capitals, sitting 3.7% and 4.0% below their respective peaks, with Melbourne’s five-year growth especially weak at 1.2%.
• Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Darwin remain at peak, showing that market strength is still concentrated in selected capitals rather than evenly spread across the country.
• Perth stands out among the capitals, with values up 89.6% over five years and 109.4% over ten years.
• Regional WA is the strongest regional market over five years, up 91.5%, while regional Queensland and regional Tasmania show especially strong ten-year gains of 118.0% and 117.0%.
• Darwin remains at peak, but its longer-term growth is comparatively modest, with gains of 33.4% over five years and 33.6% over ten years.

Australian Property Market Forecast

The Australian property market is likely to remain under pressure in the near term, with values drifting lower or flattening rather than falling sharply across the board. The clearest weakness is likely to stay concentrated in the larger, higher-priced capital cities, where affordability constraints, borrowing capacity and cautious buyer sentiment are weighing most heavily on demand.

The main drivers are now working in both directions. Higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressure, weaker confidence, softer auction conditions and rising advertised stock are giving buyers more leverage. At the same time, low housing supply, population growth and tight rental markets should help limit the depth of any downturn, creating a more uneven market where resilient regions continue to outperform while demand-sensitive segments lose momentum.

The Australian banks forecast:

• • ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.

• • CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.

• • NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.

• • Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.

• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.

• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.

• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

Where House Markets Sit in the Cycle

Where Unit Markets Sit in the Cycle

• Unit markets remain broadly resilient, with Adelaide, Perth, Hobart, Darwin, the Gold Coast and numerous regional centres continuing to rise.
• Brisbane and Coffs Harbour are approaching the peak, alongside Ipswich, the Sunshine Coast, Port Hedland and Whitsunday.
• Several regional markets are at the top of the cycle, including Bundaberg, Burnie/Devonport, Lismore, Mount Gambier and Toowoomba.
• Sydney has moved into the early stages of decline, together with Alice Springs, Bathurst and Launceston, while the Fraser Coast is already in a declining phase.
• Recovery is emerging in several major markets, with Melbourne, Canberra, Newcastle, Geelong and the Central Coast showing early signs of an upswing.
• Conditions remain weakest in a small group of coastal markets: Port Macquarie is approaching the bottom, while Ballina/Byron Bay and the Southern Highlands are positioned at the bottom of the cycle.

Conclusion

Australia’s property market is moving into a more selective phase, with weaker demand, softer selling conditions and higher advertised stock shifting more influence back toward buyers. Regional markets and some smaller capitals continue to show resilience, but the broader picture is one of slower momentum and greater sensitivity to affordability, confidence and borrowing conditions.

For now, this is not a market defined by collapse, but by a clear loss of speed and a growing need to judge conditions suburb by suburb.