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Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [November 2026]

Scarce new housing is failing to prevent Australia’s property downturn, as stretched budgets and borrowing constraints weaken demand. Dwelling values fell 1.2% in October, extending the national retreat.

The practical significance reaches beyond falling valuations: access to housing still depends on financing capacity and household incomes. Rental conditions are still easing too, but accumulated rent increases continue to burden budgets, leaving affordability central to the broader market’s adjustment.

Key Takeaways

The national downturn extended through October, with dwelling values falling 1.2% during the month.
Houses weakened more over the quarter, declining 4.2% compared with 2.7% for units across Australia.
Investment lending contracted nationally, with new investor loan commitments falling 8.6% in the June quarter.
Rental easing lifted Australia’s vacancy rate to 2.3%, while rents increased 0.9% over three months, seasonally adjusted.
Demand constraints favour further gradual national price declines, with insufficient new construction and continuing population growth providing support.

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Table of Contents

Show Regional

Month

Quarter

Annual

Total Return

Median Value

Cotality Home Value Index, Released on 2nd November 2026

Sydney

Market performance: Sydney’s dwelling values continued falling in October, with houses recording steeper losses than units.
Key Insights: A sharp annual contraction in sales accompanied the decline, highlighting weaker demand.

Melbourne

Market Performance: An extended downturn left Melbourne’s dwelling values below earlier peaks, with houses experiencing larger annual declines than units.
Key Insights: Rental income differed by property type, with units offering higher gross yields despite similar annual rent growth.

Brisbane

Market Performance: The sharpest monthly dwelling decline among the capitals occurred in Brisbane, eroding earlier gains.
Key Insights: Falling values across virtually every suburb over the quarter coincided with a substantial annual contraction in sales.

Adelaide

Market Performance: Despite retaining annual growth, Adelaide’s dwelling values declined during October and across the quarter.
Key Insights: Rents continued rising across houses and units, alongside higher vacancy rates than a year earlier.

Perth

Market Performance: Substantial earlier gains remained evident in Perth’s longer-term performance, although dwelling values fell sharply over the latest quarter.
Key Insights: Houses recorded stronger annual rent growth than units, while units offered higher gross rental yields.

Canberra

Market Performance: Falling house values outweighed a modest unit increase in Canberra during October, pushing overall dwelling values lower.capitals across houses and units, while gross
Key Insights: The rental market showed a different split, with houses recording stronger annual rent growth while units generated higher gross yields.

Hobart

Market performance: October’s rise in Hobart dwelling values contrasted with a slight decline over the quarter.
Key insights: Stronger annual rental growth for houses coincided with higher gross yields for units and increased vacancy rates compared with a year earlier.

Darwin

Market performance: Quarterly gains in Darwin unit values contrasted with falling house values, leaving the overall dwelling market slightly lower.
Key insights: Rental growth led the capitals across houses and units, while gross rental yields were also the highest among the capital cities.

Australian Property Market Trends

Australian dwelling values fell for a seventh consecutive month in October, with the downturn broadening across markets and price brackets. Capital-city values are declining more sharply than regional values, while regional markets remain above their year-earlier levels.

Monthly dwelling-value change	Quarterly dwelling-value change	Annual dwelling-value change	National median dwelling value
-1.2%	-3.9%	-2.8%	$884,855

Combined-capital dwelling values fell 1.4% in October, compared with a 0.7% decline across combined regional markets.

Buyer and Seller Conditions

Conditions increasingly favour buyers as weaker demand slows sales and advertised stock accumulates. Estimated sales over the past three months were 23% below a year earlier, while capital-city listings reached their highest seasonal level since 2019 despite fresh listings running almost 18% below average. Combined-capital auction clearance rates consistently below 50% reinforce the subdued demand picture.

Median selling time has lengthened to 39 days and vendor discounting has widened to 4.7%, giving buyers more choice and negotiating scope. Vendors face greater pressure to align asking prices with market conditions and allow longer selling periods, although borrowing constraints and low confidence continue to limit buyer participation.

Long-Term Home Value Performance

Here are the key takeaways from the latest value trends across capitals and regions, showing long-term growth, recent momentum, and where each market sits in the cycle.

National dwelling values are 6.7% below their March 2026 peak, but remain 15.9% higher over five years and 58.1% higher over ten years.
Sydney is furthest below its peak at 10.1%, followed by Perth at 8.9%, Brisbane at 8.3% and Melbourne at 8.2%.
Perth leads five-year capital-city growth at 68.3%; Melbourne is weakest at -7.3%. Sydney is also below its five-year starting point, while Canberra is unchanged.
Adelaide leads capital-city growth over ten years at 100.8%, compared with Melbourne’s 21.9%, the weakest result.
Combined regional markets have stronger five- and ten-year gains than combined capitals and a smaller retreat from peak values: 3.1% versus 8.1%.
Regional WA leads five-year regional growth at 78.0%, while regional Tasmania leads over ten years at 115.6%. Regional Victoria is weakest over both periods, at 8.1% and 75.3%.
None of the markets with published peak comparisons is currently at a record high. Darwin is closest, at 0.2% below its peak, followed by regional Tasmania at 0.3%.

Region	From peak	Peak date	Past 5 years	Past 10 years
Sydney	-10.1%	Feb-26	-1.5%	34.5%
Melbourne	-8.2%	Mar-22	-7.3%	21.9%
Brisbane	-8.3%	May-26	46.1%	98.2%
Adelaide	-4.4%	May-26	54.2%	100.8%
Perth	-8.9%	Apr-26	68.3%	93.2%
Hobart	-1.5%	Mar-22	6.9%	87.5%
Darwin	-0.2%	Jul-26	29.0%	32.9%
Canberra	-6.9%	May-22	0.0%	53.2%

Regional NSW	-3.5%	Apr-26	17.2%	86.0%
Regional Vic	-2.3%	May-26	8.1%	75.3%
Regional Qld	-4.0%	May-26	46.6%	106.5%
Regional SA	-0.5%	Aug-26	73.5%	108.4%
Regional WA	-2.2%	May-26	78.0%	109.9%
Regional Tas	-0.3%	Sep-26	26.3%	115.6%

Combined capitals	-8.1%	Mar-26	11.7%	48.6%
Combined regionals	-3.1%	Apr-26	30.3%	94.1%
National	-6.7%	Mar-26	15.9%	58.1%

Cotality Home Value Index, Released on 2nd November 2026

Rental Market Conditions

National rents continued rising, but growth slowed to 0.9% over the past three months on a seasonally adjusted basis, the lowest quarterly increase since January 2025. Rising vacancies are easing rental pressure, offering renters some relief from rapid increases, although rents are still climbing. Darwin recorded the strongest capital-city annual growth for houses and units, at 11.1% and 11.7%; Canberra recorded the weakest, at 3.8% and 1.7%. Rising rents alongside falling dwelling values are lifting gross rental yields, but higher financing and other holding costs continue to constrain investors’ cash flow.

National vacancy rate: 2.3%, compared with a ten-year average of 2.4%.
Gross rental yields: National 3.9%; combined capitals 3.8%; combined regionals 4.4%.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

HTW October 2026 Houses Property Clock

Where House Markets Sit in the Cycle

Rising markets: Darwin and Hobart sit in the rising phase, alongside regional markets including Newcastle and Rockhampton.
Peak positioning: Adelaide is approaching the peak, alongside Cairns and the Sunshine Coast, while Mackay and Toowoomba sit at the peak.
Decline phases: Brisbane and Perth are starting to decline, alongside the Gold Coast, while Canberra, Melbourne and Sydney are declining.
Bottom and recovery: Port Macquarie is approaching the bottom, the Southern Highlands is at the bottom, and Bathurst and the Central Coast are at the start of recovery.

HTW October 2026 Units Property Clock

HTW National Property Clock for units, October 2026. Market positions are summarised under ‘Where House Markets Sit in the Cycle’.

Where Unit Markets Sit in the Cycle

Rising markets: Darwin and Hobart sit in the rising phase, alongside regional markets including Geraldton and Rockhampton.
Peak positioning: Adelaide and Perth are approaching the peak, alongside Cairns and the Sunshine Coast, while Mackay, Townsville and Toowoomba sit at the peak.
Decline phases: Brisbane is starting to decline, alongside the Gold Coast and Geelong, while Sydney, Ballina/Byron Bay and Lismore are declining.
Bottom and recovery: Canberra and Melbourne are at the start of recovery, alongside Newcastle, while Port Macquarie is approaching the bottom and the Southern Highlands is at the bottom.

Australian Property Market Forecast

Purchasing capacity is likely to remain the main brake on Australian housing values over coming months and into next year. Further interest-rate rises remain a risk, potentially tightening borrowing limits as affordability constraints, weak confidence and softer employment conditions restrain demand. Household balance sheets also remain under strain.

Insufficient new construction and continuing population growth should help contain the downturn, although high development costs and capacity constraints delay completions. The national decline is on track to be the largest in at least forty years, yet a gradual drift lower remains the most likely path. Inflation, interest rates and labour conditions will increasingly determine that trajectory.

The Australian banks forecast (Reviewed September 2026):

ANZ expects capital-city prices to decline in both 2026 and 2027. ANZ forecast coverage
CBA expects further national price declines before a modest recovery during 2027. CBA housing outlook
NAB forecasts lower prices across the eight capital cities in 2026. NAB Housing Monitor
Westpac’s June forecast anticipates flat prices in 2026 and growth in 2027, although its September update warns of further downside. June Housing Pulse, September housing update

Bank	Overall price forecast	City forecasts
ANZ	Capital cities: −4.3% in 2026, −3.4% in 2027; −10.6% peak to trough	Peak to trough: Sydney −14.5%; Melbourne −12.8%; Brisbane −7.9%; Adelaide −9.8%; Perth −5.2%.
CBA	National: approximately −9% peak to trough; +2% in 2027, partly dependent on expected rate cuts	Peak to trough: Sydney approximately −13%; Melbourne −12%; Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide −8% each.
NAB	Eight capitals: −5% in 2026	Sydney and Melbourne approximately −10% each; mid-sized capitals −2% to −4%.*
Westpac	Five major capitals: 0% in 2026, +3% in 2027	2026: Sydney −3%; Melbourne −4%; Brisbane +9%; Adelaide +7%; Perth +13%; Hobart +1%. 2027: Sydney +2%; Melbourne +5%; Brisbane +3%; Adelaide +4%; Perth +5%; Hobart +3%.

NAB’s city forecasts are referenced for both 2026 and peak-to-trough periods.

For the remainder of 2026 and into 2027, this means:

A softer near-term outlook: The bank updates point to continued pressure on property prices, replacing the earlier expectation of broadly rising values. NAB.
Different conditions between cities: Sydney and Melbourne face the largest forecast declines in CBA’s outlook, although weakness has also spread to Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide. CBA.
Borrowing costs remain important: The timing and strength of any recovery depend partly on interest rates. CBA’s forecast for modest growth in 2027 assumes rate cuts during that year. CBA.
More negotiating room for buyers: Westpac reports rising listings and expects buyers to have greater bargaining power in many markets heading into spring. This is an interpretation of market conditions, not a guarantee for individual properties. Westpac.

Conclusion

Housing affordability remains under strain as the national market reprices. Financing constraints limit purchasing capacity, while the accumulated increase in rents continues to stretch household budgets.

Limited construction and ongoing population growth should cushion further weakness. The broader Australian market is consequently adjusting through lower values while structural supply constraints and financial pressures continue to restrict housing access.

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