Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [November 2024]

Market Momentum Slows: Key Updates for Homeowners

• Cooling Market Conditions: The Australian property market is showing signs of cooling, with a rise in advertised stock levels and a slowdown in buyer activity. This has led to more balanced selling conditions.
• Annual Growth Slows: The annual growth rate of national home values has eased to 6.0% by October 2024, down from a peak of 9.7% in February 2023
• Interest Rates and Inflation: A potential cut in interest rates is expected in early 2025, which could support price stability. Inflation is trending lower, with core inflation at 3.5%, indicating a positive shift in economic conditions
• Affordability Concerns: High debt servicing ratios and near-record levels of home values relative to household incomes continue to pose affordability challenges.
• Economic Support Factors: Tight labor markets and low new housing supply should help sustain property values, preventing a major downturn despite economic headwinds.
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For insights on how your local market is performing and your property’s value start here. 

Property Price Growth By City

This chart shows the percentage change in property values across different locations in Australia. The most recent month of data is October 2024. Select the property type, time period, and whether to include regional areas to compare market trends.

All Dwellings Houses Units Show Regional

Month

Quarter

Annual

Total Return

Median Value

Month Quarter Annual Total Return Median Value

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on November 1, 2024

Sydney

• Market Performance: Sydney’s property market experienced a slight decline of 0.1% in home values for October 2024, marking the first drop since early 2023. This indicates the continuation of a market cooldown after a period of moderate recovery earlier in the year.
• Key Insight: Sydney’s market is expected to remain balanced but may face further pressure due to affordability constraints and economic factors like rising interest rates. While lower inflation rates may help stabilize the market, challenges such as high debt servicing ratios and increased listings could lead to continued moderation.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: The Melbourne property market experienced a slight decline in value, with a -0.2% drop in October, contributing to a -0.8% decrease over the quarter. This trend highlights the challenges in the current economic climate, marked by high interest rates and reduced buyer activity.
• Key Insight: The outlook for Melbourne remains cautious as affordability issues persist and economic conditions continue to impact buyer sentiment. Any significant recovery in growth may depend on improvements in economic factors such as interest rates and consumer confidence.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Brisbane continues to show strong performance, with dwelling values increasing by 0.7% in October 2024. The city has recorded significant gains throughout the year, maintaining its status as one of the top-performing capital cities.
• Key Insight: While Brisbane’s property market is expected to maintain positive growth, the pace may continue to moderate due to broader economic conditions such as higher interest rates and affordability constraints. The combination of these factors could temper future gains as the market stabilizes.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide’s housing market remains one of the strongest performers among the capital cities, showcasing consistent growth. It has maintained momentum throughout the year, even as other markets begin to cool.
• Key Insight: The outlook for Adelaide remains positive, but the pace of growth may begin to moderate as broader economic conditions, such as interest rates and inflation, influence the market. However, the city is expected to remain resilient due to its affordability and stable local economy.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth continues to be a standout performer among Australia’s capital cities. The market recorded a 1.4% increase in home values for October 2024, contributing to a robust annual growth of 22.6%. This sustained growth positions Perth as a leading market amid national trends of cooling value momentum.
• Key Insight: Looking ahead, while Perth’s strong growth trajectory is expected to continue, the pace may moderate as higher stock levels gradually meet demand. Economic conditions, such as potential interest rate adjustments and employment stability, will also play crucial roles in sustaining growth.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra’s property market faced a challenging period in the three months to October 2024, showing a quarterly decline of -0.9%. This reflects ongoing national trends of cooling property values amidst rising stock levels and moderated buyer activity.
• Key Insight: The outlook for Canberra’s market points to continued stabilization rather than significant growth. Any improvement will be contingent on broader economic factors, such as changes in interest rates and potential shifts in household income levels.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market Performance: Hobart’s housing market is experiencing challenges, with mixed signals in its performance. The market has shown a subtle rebound with a monthly gain but remains below peak levels reached in early 2022.
• Key Insight: The outlook for Hobart remains cautious, with potential for further value stabilization but limited short-term growth. External economic factors such as national interest rates and local affordability will play a crucial role in shaping future trends.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market Performance: Darwin’s property market continued to face challenges in October 2024, recording a decline of -1.0% in monthly dwelling values and a -1.3% decrease over the past quarter. This reflects ongoing struggles in maintaining market growth compared to other Australian cities.
• Key Insight: The outlook for Darwin suggests a continuation of soft market conditions due to ongoing economic challenges and low migration rates. Without significant shifts in demand or economic drivers, recovery may remain limited in the near term. Affordability pressures and competition from other markets may further limit growth potential.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Summary of housing values since the onset of COVID in March 2020 and relative to peak levels (onset of COVID calculated from March 2020).

Region	Onset of COVID to October 2024 (%)	Onset of COVID to October 2024 ($)	Change from Series Peak to October 2024	Series Peak Date
Sydney	29.10%	$269,048	-0.10%	Sep 24
Melbourne	9.90%	$69,913	-5.10%	Mar 22
Brisbane	66.90%	$354,112	<at peak>	–
Adelaide	70.80%	$335,194	<at peak>	–
Perth	76.00%	$347,564	<at peak>	–
Hobart	27.70%	$141,285	-11.90%	Mar 22
Darwin	23.40%	$93,309	-7.50%	May 14
Canberra	30.80%	$200,108	-6.50%	May 22
Regional NSW	49.30%	$243,562	-2.80%	May 22
Regional Vic	30.60%	$131,755	-8.50%	May 22
Regional Qld	67.20%	$272,419	<at peak>	–
Regional SA	67.90%	$178,128	<at peak>	–
Regional WA	72.10%	$225,677	<at peak>	–
Regional Tas	46.10%	$162,298	-3.90%	May 22
Combined capitals	34.40%	$229,066	<at peak>	–
Combined regional	54.10%	$225,917	<at peak>	–
National	38.60%	$225,360	<at peak>	–

Australian Property Market Forecast

The Australian banks forecast:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics has also released a three year property price forecast.

City	Median Price* (Houses)	Median Price*(Units)	Total Price** (%) Growth (Houses)	Total Price ** (%) Growth (Units)
Sydney	$1.93M	$1.09M	18%	22%
Melbourne	$1.28M	$0.78M	21%	20%
Brisbane	$1.21M	$0.71M	19%	23%
Adelaide	$0.95M	$0.69M	16%	18%
Perth	$1.05M	$0.64M	30%	30%
Canberra	$1.17M	$0.75M	19%	20%
Hobart	$0.86M	$0.71M	13%	16%
Darwin	$0.70M	$0.46M	24%	26%
Combined Capitals	$1.34M	$0.87M	20%	21%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.
• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.
• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.
• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.
• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out. 

Australian Property Clock: Houses

Australian Property Clock: Units

Conclusion

The October 2024 property market analysis reflects a complex landscape shaped by varied demand, macroeconomic influences, and evolving buyer and seller behaviors. With key insights into growth areas and challenges across different property types, stakeholders are better positioned to navigate the current market with informed strategies. Continued monitoring and adaptability will be crucial as the market shifts in response to economic conditions and policy changes.

Understand the property market with these next steps

1. Get your free property report for a property value estimate and local market conditions.
2. Get a personalised shortlist of the top performing local agents to sell, rent or buy with confidence.
3. Secure a free property appraisal with a top local agent for an estimate of your property’s worth.