Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [December 2024]

Key Updates for Homeowners

• National Home Values Growth Slows: Home values rose by just 0.1% in November, marking the weakest growth since January 2023. This could indicate the current growth cycle is nearing its end.

• Declines in Major Cities: Melbourne (-0.4%), Sydney (-0.2%), and Darwin (-0.7%) all recorded value declines this quarter, signaling shifting conditions in these markets.

• Regional Areas Outperform: Regional housing markets rose by 1.1% over the past three months, compared to just 0.3% across capital cities.

• Supply is Increasing: Listings in capital cities are up 16% since winter, with Sydney and Melbourne at their highest levels for this time of year since 2018.

• Selling Conditions are Softening: Auction clearance rates have dropped below 60%, and median selling times are increasing, reflecting weaker demand.

For insights on how your local market is performing and your property’s value start here. 

Property Price Growth By City

This chart shows the percentage change in property values across different locations in Australia. Select the property type, time period, and whether to include regional areas to compare market trends.

All Dwellings Houses Units Show Regional

Month

Quarter

Annual

Total Return

Median Value

Month Quarter Annual Total Return Median Value

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on December 1, 2024

Sydney

• Market Performance: Sydney’s property market saw a decline in November 2024, with dwelling values falling by -0.2% for the month and -0.5% over the quarter. This downturn marks a shift following the market’s peak in August. Sales activity has also dropped significantly, with transaction volumes down -15.4% compared to the same period last year.
• Key Insight: For homeowners considering selling, the current market presents challenges due to increased competition and reduced buyer activity. Strategic timing and competitive pricing will be crucial in navigating these conditions.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Melbourne’s housing market continues to face downward pressure, with values falling by -0.4% in November. Over the past year, values have declined by -2.3%, reflecting weaker conditions compared to other major cities.
• Key Insight: Melbourne homeowners face a challenging market with declining values and rising competition. While the long-term outlook may improve with economic adjustments, current conditions suggest a cautious approach for those considering selling.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Brisbane’s property market remains a top performer among capital cities, though the pace of growth has slowed. In November, dwelling values increased by 0.6%, bringing quarterly growth to 1.8%, the slowest since March 2023. The annual growth rate stands at a robust 12.1%, with the median dwelling value now at $886,540.
• Key Insight: Brisbane’s market is cooling slightly but remains strong compared to other capitals. Sellers may find opportunities to capitalize on current demand, particularly in the unit market, where growth is outpacing other housing types. Buyers should act strategically, as affordability may tighten in 2025.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide’s housing market continues to demonstrate solid growth, with a 0.8% increase in dwelling values in November 2024, bringing the quarterly rise to 2.8%. Over the past year, Adelaide recorded an impressive annual growth rate of 14.0%, solidifying its position as one of the top-performing capitals.
• Key Insight: Adelaide continues to be a strong performer in the Australian property market, offering attractive opportunities for sellers. With steady demand and limited supply, the market outlook remains positive, but sellers should monitor affordability trends and market dynamics closely.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth remains the strongest performer among Australia’s capitals, with home values increasing by 1.1% in November 2024. Over the past quarter, values rose by 3.0%, maintaining an annual growth rate of 21.0%. This performance highlights Perth as a key growth market despite signs of a broader market slowdown nationwide.
• Key Insight: Perth’s property market continues to provide significant opportunities for sellers, with high growth rates and strong demand making it a standout performer. Sellers should act strategically, as the pace of gains may moderate in the coming months.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: The Canberra property market remained subdued in November 2024, with home values rising by a marginal 0.1% for the month and declining 0.3% over the quarter. On an annual basis, values decreased slightly by 0.1%, reflecting broader challenges across Australian capital cities.
• Key Insight: Canberra’s property market is currently navigating a period of stagnation, with minimal growth and rising stock levels. For homeowners considering selling, market conditions suggest a cautious approach, with opportunities possibly improving in the medium term as economic factors stabilize.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market Performance: Hobart’s property market saw marginal improvement with a 0.4% quarterly increase in dwelling values, though it recorded a slight monthly decline of -0.1% in November. The annual change remains negative at -1.0%, reflecting ongoing market challenges.
• Key Insight: Hobart’s property market is currently characterized by flat or declining values, with limited upside in the short term. Sellers may need to manage expectations, while buyers could find opportunities in the unit market as values adjust further.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market Performance: Darwin’s property market showed modest activity in November 2024, with dwelling values rising by 0.2% for the month but declining by -0.7% over the quarter. The annual growth rate sits at a low 0.9%, reflecting slow recovery compared to other capitals. The median dwelling value in Darwin is now $496,860.
• Key Insight: Darwin homeowners should remain cautious, as the market continues to face challenges. For sellers, understanding local market conditions and timing decisions strategically will be key to achieving the best outcomes in a slow-moving market.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Summary of housing values since the onset of COVID in March 2020 and relative to peak levels (onset of COVID calculated from March 2020).

Region	Onset of COVID to Nov 2024 (%)	Onset of COVID to Nov 2024 ($)	Change from Peak to Nov 2024 (%)	Series Peak Date
Sydney	28.70%	$266,854	-0.50%	Aug-24
Melbourne	9.50%	$67,120	-5.50%	Mar-22
Brisbane	67.60%	$357,604	<at peak>	Nov-24
Adelaide	71.40%	$339,070	<at peak>	Nov-24
Perth	76.80%	$350,900	<at peak>	Nov-24
Hobart	27.40%	$140,882	-12.10%	Mar-22
Darwin	23.50%	$94,505	-7.40%	May-22
Canberra	30.80%	$200,440	-6.50%	May-22
Regional NSW	49.70%	$246,982	-2.50%	May-22
Regional Vic	30.60%	$132,484	-8.50%	May-22
Regional Qld	67.70%	$277,640	<at peak>	Nov-24
Regional SA	68.40%	$181,999	<at peak>	Nov-24
Regional WA	73.30%	$229,099	<at peak>	Nov-24
Regional Tas	47.00%	$165,360	-3.30%	May-22
Combined Capitals	34.30%	$229,098	<at peak>	Nov-24
Combined Regional	54.60%	$229,471	<at peak>	Nov-24
National	38.60%	$226,285	<at peak>	Nov-24

Australian Property Market Forecast

The Australian banks forecast:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics has also released a three year property price forecast.

City	Median Price* (Houses)	Median Price*(Units)	Total Price** (%) Growth (Houses)	Total Price ** (%) Growth (Units)
Sydney	$1.93M	$1.09M	18%	22%
Melbourne	$1.28M	$0.78M	21%	20%
Brisbane	$1.21M	$0.71M	19%	23%
Adelaide	$0.95M	$0.69M	16%	18%
Perth	$1.05M	$0.64M	30%	30%
Canberra	$1.17M	$0.75M	19%	20%
Hobart	$0.86M	$0.71M	13%	16%
Darwin	$0.70M	$0.46M	24%	26%
Combined Capitals	$1.34M	$0.87M	20%	21%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.
• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.
• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.
• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.
• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out. 

Australian Property Clock: Houses

Australian Property Clock: Units

Conclusion

The Australian housing market has reached a pivotal moment, with growth slowing significantly across most regions. National home values increased by just 0.1% in November 2024, marking the weakest result in nearly two years. Mid-sized capitals like Perth and Adelaide continue to lead in gains, but even their growth is easing. Meanwhile, larger cities like Sydney, Melbourne, and Darwin are experiencing declines in home values.

The outlook for 2025 suggests continued moderation, influenced by high core inflation, tight labor markets, and rising geopolitical risks. While a potential rate cut could provide relief, affordability challenges and increasing stock levels are expected to weigh on market conditions. The undersupply of housing and subdued construction activity may offer some support to prices, but overall, the housing market enters the new year on weaker footing. Homeowners should carefully monitor these trends when planning their next steps.

 

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