Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [January 2025]

Key Updates for Homeowners

• National Decline in Home Values: For the first time in nearly two years, national home values dipped slightly by -0.1% in December 2024, marking the end of a robust growth period since February 2023.

• Growth Variations Across Regions: While Australian home values rose 4.9% in 2024 overall, cities like Perth (+19.1%) and Adelaide (+13.1%) led growth, while Melbourne (-3.0%) saw a decline.

• Affordability Pressures Shift Demand: Lower-priced markets experienced the strongest growth, with values in the most affordable quartile rising by 9.8% in 2024.

• Regional Markets Outperform Capitals: Regional housing values increased 6.0% over the year, outpacing the combined capitals’ 4.5% growth.

• Adelaide Surges in Q4: Adelaide overtook Perth as the top-performing market in the December quarter, with values rising by 2.1%.

For insights on how your local market is performing and your property’s value start here. 

Property Price Growth By City

This chart shows the percentage change in property values across different locations in Australia. Select the property type, time period, and whether to include regional areas to compare market trends.

All Dwellings Houses Units Show Regional

Month

Quarter

Annual

Total Return

Median Value

Month Quarter Annual Total Return Median Value

CoreLogic Home Value Index, Released on 1st January 2025

Sydney

• Market Performance: Sydney experienced a mixed housing market performance in 2024, marked by a -0.6% decline in monthly dwelling values and a -1.4% drop over the quarter. Despite these short-term losses, annual values rose modestly by 2.3%, with the median dwelling value reaching $1,191,955 by the end of December.
• Key Insight: Sydney’s housing market ended 2024 with mixed signals, showcasing resilience in the early part of the year but slowing due to economic pressures. While affordability constraints and high borrowing costs have weighed on growth, the outlook suggests a stabilization phase in 2025, with potential for moderate recovery influenced by monetary policy changes.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Melbourne’s housing market ended 2024 on a weaker note, with a -3.0% annual decline in dwelling values, marking one of the sharper downturns among Australian capitals. The city’s median home value stood at $774,093 by December 2024. This reflects the ongoing impact of reduced affordability and weakened demand.
• Key Insight: Melbourne’s housing market faces ongoing challenges, with declining values reflecting affordability pressures and shifting market dynamics. While modest improvements in affordability and demand are expected in 2025, significant growth recovery remains unlikely in the short term​.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Brisbane’s property market remained resilient in 2024, showcasing strong annual growth of 11.2% in dwelling values. This performance positioned it as one of the top mid-sized capitals, benefiting from increasing affordability pressures in larger markets and limited stock availability.
• Key Insight: Brisbane’s market showcased remarkable resilience and steady growth in 2024, but the pace of growth is expected to slow in 2025. While the city remains attractive for both buyers and investors, affordability and policy changes will be key factors influencing its performance.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide experienced strong housing market performance in 2024, with an annual dwelling value growth of 13.1%, making it one of the leading capital cities in Australia. The city recorded the highest quarterly growth among the capitals, with a 2.1% rise in values during the December quarter, outpacing Perth and Brisbane. This growth is underpinned by extremely low advertised stock levels, which were 34% below the five-year average, fueling buyer competition.
• Key Insight: Adelaide remains a standout performer in the Australian housing market, driven by low stock levels and strong demand for affordable housing. While growth may decelerate slightly, Adelaide’s affordability and resilience position it favorably for continued strength in 2025.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth’s property market exhibited exceptional growth in 2024, recording a remarkable 19.1% annual increase in home values, outpacing all other capitals in Australia. This growth translated to a median home value of $813,016, underlining Perth’s strong market performance amidst national challenges such as high interest rates and affordability constraints​.
• Key Insight: Perth’s housing market emerged as a standout performer in 2024, driven by strong demand in affordable segments and regional areas. While the pace of growth slowed in the latter half of the year, Perth remains poised for continued resilience, bolstered by its relative affordability and ongoing population growth​.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra’s property market showed a slight decline in 2024, with an annual value drop of -0.4% and a median dwelling value of $844,277. This downturn reflects broader national trends of cooling property growth amid rising affordability constraints.
• Key Insight: Canberra’s real estate market reflects stability amid challenges, with slight declines contrasting with national gains in some regions. Improved affordability and potential interest rate cuts may bolster demand in 2025, but a sharp rebound remains unlikely.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market Performance: In 2024, Hobart’s property market recorded a modest decline, with home values decreasing by -0.6% annually, reflecting ongoing affordability pressures and subdued demand. The median dwelling value stood at $651,043, indicating a slight softening compared to other capitals.
• Key Insight: While Hobart’s property market declined in 2024, the impacts were less severe than other weaker-performing markets like Melbourne. The rental market showed strength, and Hobart remains relatively affordable compared to other capitals. Future growth hinges on policy and economic adjustments, with moderate optimism for stabilization in 2025.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market Performance: Darwin’s housing market experienced modest growth in 2024, with an annual value increase of 0.8%. The median dwelling value now stands at $496,871, reflecting a relatively stable market amid fluctuating national trends​.
• Key Insight: Darwin’s real estate market in 2024 showcased stable but modest growth, underpinned by strong rental returns and affordability. While not experiencing the significant surges seen in other capitals, the city’s market remains resilient. Moving into 2025, moderate growth is anticipated, with external factors like interest rate adjustments playing a critical role in shaping market performance​.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Change in dwelling values over key time periods

Region	From Peak	Peak Date	Past 10yrs	Since Onset of COVID
Sydney	-1.40%	Sep-24	70.40%	27.70%
Melbourne	-6.40%	Mar-22	49.30%	8.40%
Brisbane	<at peak>		90.40%	67.70%
Adelaide	<at peak>		93.30%	72.10%
Perth	<at peak>		54.80%	77.00%
Hobart	-12.60%	Mar-22	87.30%	26.70%
Darwin	-6.40%	May-14	-3.40%	24.80%
Canberra	-6.80%	May-22	62.10%	30.30%
Regional NSW	-2.40%	May-22	98.80%	49.90%
Regional Vic	-8.60%	May-22	74.10%	30.60%
Regional Qld	<at peak>		88.20%	68.10%
Regional SA	<at peak>		69.70%	70.20%
Regional WA	<at peak>		45.80%	74.20%
Regional Tas	-2.60%	May-22	91.90%	48.10%
Regional NT	-11.50%	Apr-16	-8.40%	-3.70%
Combined capitals	-0.50%	Sep-24	66.80%	33.60%
Combined regionals	<at peak>		86.20%	54.90%
National	-0.10%	Oct-24	71.10%	38.10%

Australian Property Market Forecast

The Australian banks forecast:

• ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.
• CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.
• NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.
• Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

Oxford Economics has also released a three year property price forecast.

City	Median Price* (Houses)	Median Price*(Units)	Total Price** (%) Growth (Houses)	Total Price ** (%) Growth (Units)
Sydney	$1.93M	$1.09M	18%	22%
Melbourne	$1.28M	$0.78M	21%	20%
Brisbane	$1.21M	$0.71M	19%	23%
Adelaide	$0.95M	$0.69M	16%	18%
Perth	$1.05M	$0.64M	30%	30%
Canberra	$1.17M	$0.75M	19%	20%
Hobart	$0.86M	$0.71M	13%	16%
Darwin	$0.70M	$0.46M	24%	26%
Combined Capitals	$1.34M	$0.87M	20%	21%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.
• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.
• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.
• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.
• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out. 

Australian Property Clock: Houses

Australian Property Clock: Units

Conclusion

• 2024 Review: The Australian housing market experienced varying growth patterns across regions, with affordability pressures and high interest rates driving shifts in demand. Regional areas generally outperformed capital cities in terms of growth.

• Current Outlook: A modest decline in national home values in late 2024 signals the market catching up with economic realities. Affordability issues continue to push demand towards lower-priced markets.

• Looking Ahead to 2025: Key trends to watch include potential interest rate cuts, changes to lending policies, reduced overseas migration, and ongoing housing shortages. While affordability is expected to improve slightly, challenges in construction and supply may continue to influence the market.

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