Australian Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [March 2026]

Sydney

• Market Performance: Sydney dwelling values were broadly flat through February and slightly lower over the rolling quarter, indicating a pause in momentum compared with stronger conditions elsewhere.
• Key Insights: Softer sentiment and the February rate hike appear to have weighed more on Sydney, while activity also shows a lift in new listings and a clearer split between more affordable and higher-priced segments.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Sydney

Melbourne

• Market Performance: Melbourne home values have been broadly flat recently, showing a clearer slowdown than many mid-sized capitals and appearing more sensitive to the latest rate rise and softer sentiment.
• Key Insights: A lift in newly advertised stock suggests vendors are becoming more active as conditions stabilise, while affordability and credit constraints continue to steer demand toward lower-priced options within the city.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Melbourne

Brisbane

• Market Performance: Brisbane dwelling values continued to lift through February, standing out among the mid-sized capitals while Sydney and Melbourne were largely flat, reflecting a clear divergence in near-term market conditions.
• Key Insights: Tight advertised supply has been a key support, but the broader backdrop includes affordability pressure, softer confidence and constrained credit, which tend to concentrate competition in lower-priced segments and leave higher price points more subdued.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Brisbane

Adelaide

• Market Performance: Adelaide recorded a rise in dwelling values over February, continuing the steadier upward movement seen across several mid-sized capitals while Sydney and Melbourne were largely flat.
• Key Insights: The city’s pricing resilience has been supported by a shortage of homes for sale, with leaner listings than is usually seen keeping competition firmer locally even while several other capital-city markets have lost some heat.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Adelaide

Perth

• Market Performance: Perth recorded the strongest momentum among the capitals, with home values rising again over February and continuing to outpace the steadier conditions evident in Sydney and Melbourne.
• Key Insights: Conditions in Perth appear to be underpinned by tight stock levels, which has kept competition active even as affordability and broader sentiment remain more challenging influences across the national market.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Perth

Canberra

• Market Performance: Canberra’s dwelling values lifted over the month, with momentum more moderate than several other capitals and the market still sitting a little below its earlier high watermark.
• Key Insights: Rental conditions in Canberra are described as the softest across both houses and units, linked to subdued population growth alongside a comparatively higher pace of dwelling completions.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Canberra

Hobart

• Market performance: Hobart dwelling values moved a little higher over February, maintaining a modest improvement that differed from flatter conditions in some larger capitals and leaving the city among the steadier performers.
• Key insights: Market conditions seem influenced by limited advertised supply and stronger competition for more affordable homes, while affordability pressures, borrowing constraints and softer sentiment continue to shape buyer behaviour across the city.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Hobart

Darwin

• Market performance: Darwin home values edged higher recently and remain around their prior high, with momentum firmer over the recent quarter than the latest month suggests.
• Key insights: From a rental-market perspective, Darwin stands out for relatively stronger yields, which can support cash-flow outcomes, although broader conditions still mean holding costs may outweigh rental income for many investors.

Read More: Latest Property Market Update for Darwin

Australian Property Market Trends

Here are the key takeaways from the latest value trends across capitals and regions, showing long-term growth, recent momentum, and where each market sits in the cycle.

• Australia overall is at a record high (at peak) with values up 43.6% over the past 5 years and 17.0% since May 2022.
• Most markets are at record highs now including Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Darwin, and nearly all regional areas.
• Sydney is essentially at its high at just 0.1% below peak, up 31.1% over 5 years and 8.3% since May 2022.
• Markets still below their earlier highs (mostly around 2022) include:
  • Melbourne is 1.0% below peak and 0.5% lower since May 2022
  • Hobart is 3.5% below peak and 3.2% lower since May 2022
  • Canberra is 1.1% below peak and 1.1% lower since May 2022
• Perth is the standout capital city with 90.3% growth over 5 years and 68.7% growth since May 2022, and it is at peak.
• Other top-performing capital cities include:
  • Brisbane up 86.1% over 5 years and 37.2% since May 2022, and at peak
  • Adelaide up 79.9% over 5 years and 40.2% since May 2022, and at peak
• Regional markets have outperformed capital cities overall with:
  • Combined regionals up 55.4% over 5 years and 18.4% since May 2022, and at peak
  • Combined capitals up 40.2% over 5 years and 16.6% since May 2022, and at peak
• Regional WA is the regional standout up 88.8% over 5 years and 61.8% since May 2022, and at peak.
• The weakest area in the table is Regional NT which is 7.7% below peak, up only 0.4% over 5 years, and down 3.7% since May 2022.

How to interpret these numbers

Example: Sydney (-0.1% from peak; peak in Nov-25) indicates the market is essentially sitting at its record high; +31.1% over the past five years reflects strong longer-term growth; and +8.3% since May 2022 shows Sydney has continued to rise through the most recent rate-hiking cycle.

Australian Property Market Forecast

Australia’s housing market is expected to continue rising through 2026, though at a more moderate pace than the recent upswing. National home values were 9.1% higher year-on-year in February, with the median home value reaching $897,000, reflecting ongoing demand and limited supply.

Supply remains the key constraint. Building approvals fell 7.2% in January 2026, and the national housing pipeline is still well short of projected needs. Even as migration eases, demand continues to outpace new stock, which should keep pressure on prices and rents.

The outlook remains positive, but uneven. Sydney and Melbourne are showing signs of slowing, while Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide continue to perform more strongly. Overall, price growth is likely to continue through 2026, led by more affordable homes and apartments in supply-constrained markets.

The Australian banks forecast:

• • ANZ predicts a 5-6% increase in capital city property prices in 2024, with Brisbane expected to see the highest rise at 9-10%, Perth property values could go up by 1-11%, Sydney by 4-5%, and Melbourne prices by 2-3%.

• • CBA forecasts a 5% rise in capital city prices, with some variations: Brisbane is anticipated to grow by 6%, Melbourne and Perth by 5%, Sydney by 4%, and Adelaide by 1%.

• • NAB projects a 5.4% average increase across the capitals, with Brisbane expected to see a 6.5% rise, Perth and Adelaide by 6.2%, Melbourne by 5.5%, Sydney by 5%, and Hobart remaining flat.

• • Westpac expects a 6% growth across the combined capitals, with Perth leading at 10%, followed by Brisbane at 8%, Sydney at 6%, Adelaide at 4%, and Melbourne at 3%

For the second half of 2024 this means:

• Modest value increases expected: The national housing market is likely to see modest value increases through the end of 2024, driven by a persistent imbalance between supply and demand.

• Affordability constraints: Affordability pressures, high interest rates, and cost-of-living challenges are expected to temper growth, especially in higher-priced markets.

• Sustainability of growth: High growth levels in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane may be difficult to sustain as affordability becomes more stretched.

• Shift to affordable segments: Demand is increasingly focused on more affordable market segments, with significant growth in the lower quartile of the market.

• Construction Sector Constraints: Ongoing issues in the construction sector, including labor shortages and competition from public infrastructure projects, are likely to keep supply constrained, supporting property values in the longer term.

Australian Property Clock Update

Each month, independent property valuation firm Herron Todd White (HTW) publishes a residential property report that assesses the performance of Australia’s 50 largest markets. HTW’s Property Clock grades each market based on current and predicted performance to determine whether it’s rising, falling, peaking or bottoming out.

Houses Clock Key Takeaways

Units Clock Key Takeaways 

• The national unit market still looks well supported, with affordability and rental demand helping keep buyer activity focused on attached housing. The clock remains weighted more toward Rising, Approaching Peak and Peak than toward Declining or Bottom, pointing to a market that is still generally holding up well.

• Many unit markets remain in the Rising Market phase because apartments and townhouses continue to offer a more accessible price point for buyers and investors. That is especially clear in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, the Gold Coast, Hobart and Illawarra.

• Approaching Peak suggests demand is still solid, but growth is becoming more selective as affordability pressures build. Sydney is the clearest example, with momentum still present but conditions now more measured.

• Peak of Market locations are mostly affordable regional markets where unit values have already had a strong run. Tamworth, Toowoomba and Mount Gambier stand out as markets where tight supply and value-based demand continue to support prices.

• The softer side of the clock still looks more like patchy recovery than broad weakness.
  Melbourne, Canberra, Newcastle and Geelong sit in early recovery territory, while only a small number of markets appear to be easing.

• The main blue movers are Sydney, Hobart and Illawarra. That suggests momentum is still shifting, with buyers continuing to favour well-located, more affordable unit stock.

Conclusion

Australia’s housing market is increasingly multi speed. Some cities are losing momentum as borrowing conditions tighten and confidence cools, while others continue to hold up because homes for sale remain scarce and competition stays strongest where properties feel more attainable.

From here, the outlook looks finely balanced. Affordability pressure, tighter access to credit, and softer sentiment are likely to keep a lid on demand, especially at the higher end. At the same time, limited supply, a still supportive jobs backdrop, and targeted assistance for buyers are helping to steady conditions rather than tip them into a sharp downturn. The result is a market that stays more segmented and uneven, with performance driven by what buyers can realistically service and what stock is available locally.