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Home › Market Insights › Will House Prices Ever Go Down in 2025-2026?
Australia’s property market has a long history of growth but that doesn’t mean prices rise forever. In reality, house prices can and do fall when the right mix of conditions appear: high interest rates, stretched affordability, more listings, or weaker demand.
In 2025, many Australians are asking the same question: will house prices ever go down and if so, when? The short answer is that prices can soften temporarily, but a full-scale crash is rare. This article explains what drives property values down, what experts are forecasting for the next year, and how you can prepare whether you’re buying or selling.
If you’re considering a move, now is the time to understand how interest rates, migration, and supply are shaping the market and what those trends mean for your next decision.
Key Takeaways House prices in Australia can go down but rarely for long. History shows short-term dips (like in 2008, 2018 and 2022) tend to be followed by recoveries once rates stabilise and demand rebounds. The national outlook for 2025–26 is steady, not scary. Most forecasters including KPMG, CoreLogic, and CBA expect modest growth of 2–6% nationally, with Perth and Brisbane leading gains and Sydney and Melbourne remaining mostly flat. What happens next depends on a few key levers: Interest rates, employment, supply of new homes, and investor confidence all work together to shape prices. When demand outweighs supply, prices hold firm. Not every market moves together. Even if the national median rises, some local pockets (like outer-ring estates or high-rise precincts) can soften, while established suburbs with tight supply often stay resilient. Timing the market rarely works, preparation does. Instead of waiting for a crash that may never come, focus on your personal readiness: solid finances, a comfortable repayment buffer, and choosing the right property or agent.
Key Takeaways
Next step: Before diving in, if you’re thinking about selling or buying, it’s worth comparing local real estate agents to see who’s achieving the best results in your suburb. Compare top-rated agents near you, it’s free, quick, and based on real performance data.
Let’s start with the simple truth: Yes, house prices in Australia can go down but rarely for long periods or across every city at the same time.
To understand why, you need to think about the short term, the long term, and the local picture.
In the short term, say over a year or two, prices move up and down depending on interest rates, consumer confidence, and borrowing power.For example, when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifts the cash rate, home loan repayments rise. This reduces what buyers can afford to borrow, so fewer people bid at auctions, and prices can dip.
Over the long term, however, Australian property has mostly trended upward. That’s because our population keeps growing, land near major cities is limited, and people continue to see housing as a safe long-term investment. Even after downturns like 2008, 2018, and 2022, national prices eventually rebounded and moved higher again.
It’s also important to remember that there isn’t one “Australian property market” there are hundreds of smaller ones.For example:
Even within a single city, one suburb can rise while another falls. Coastal or inner-city areas with high demand might hold steady, while outer-ring or high-rise apartment markets can soften more quickly.
When it comes to property prices, some factors are beyond your control like RBA rate decisions, government housing policies, or overseas migration trends. But there are also many things you can control:
Focusing on these controllable factors can make a bigger difference to your financial outcome than trying to “predict” the market perfectly.
If you’re waiting for house prices to crash before you buy, you might be waiting years or miss out altogether. History shows that Australian prices rarely fall dramatically across the board. Instead, they usually flatten or dip modestly before climbing again.A smarter approach is to buy when you can afford to, choose a quality property in a location with lasting appeal, and leave yourself room to handle rate changes.
For sellers, a softer market doesn’t have to mean a poor result. Well-presented homes in desirable areas can still attract strong competition.What matters most is pricing realistically, marketing strategically, and choosing the right agent who knows how to sell in current conditions.
Property prices don’t move randomly. When the housing market softens, it’s usually because several forces shift at once the interest rates, employment, supply, or investor sentiment.
Think of the market like a set of scales: one side is demand (how many people want to buy homes), the other is supply (how many homes are available). When demand weakens or supply rises sharply, prices can fall. Here are the six main levers that influence whether Australian house prices go down and what each means for you.
Interest rates are arguably the strongest driver of house prices in Australia. When the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raises the cash rate, home loan repayments increase. This instantly reduces how much people can borrow known as their borrowing capacity.
For example, if the RBA lifts rates by 1%, a typical borrower might lose up to 10–15% of their borrowing power. With less competition, buyers offer lower prices, and sellers adjust their expectations. Higher interest rates also make existing mortgages more expensive, so some homeowners may decide (or be forced) to sell, adding to supply.
The opposite is true when rates fall: cheaper finance boosts demand and often sends prices higher. That’s exactly what happened in 2020–21, when record-low rates fuelled a national property boom.
Tip for buyers: Before house hunting, stress-test your finances. Use a higher interest rate (e.g., 1.5–2% above current levels) to see if you could still afford repayments if rates rise.
Tip for sellers: When rates are high, focus on presentation and realistic pricing, buyers are more cautious and selective.
Another key factor is job security and household income.When people feel confident about their jobs and pay rises are steady, they’re more willing to take on large mortgages. But if unemployment climbs or wages stall, demand for housing usually falls.
In downturns, households prioritise saving and debt repayment over moving or upgrading. That cooling in demand can push prices down, especially if forced sales increase. In contrast, strong employment (like Australia’s current rate around 4%) tends to hold up housing demand even when borrowing costs rise.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), employment growth has helped prevent a deeper housing correction since 2023 despite rising rates.
More homes for sale means buyers have more choice and sellers may need to cut prices to stay competitive.
Supply comes from two main sources:
When listings rise sharply or large apartment projects hit the market at once, local prices can soften. This often happens in high-rise precincts or outer suburban house-and-land estates where supply can ramp up quickly.
However, if construction slows (like it has recently due to high building costs and shortages), that can limit supply and help support prices.
The ABS reported that new dwelling approvals fell through much of 2025, meaning less future supply, one reason economists don’t expect a nationwide crash.
The ease or difficulty of getting a loan has a huge impact on demand. When APRA (Australia’s banking regulator) tightens lending standards such as by increasing the “serviceability buffer” fewer people qualify for loans, which cools demand and can nudge prices lower.
Government incentives, on the other hand, can have the opposite effect. First Home Buyer schemes (like the $30,000 FHOG in Queensland), stamp duty discounts, or deposit guarantees can temporarily boost demand and lift prices, even in a slower economy.
These changes don’t always affect everyone equally: entry-level buyers feel the biggest difference because they’re most sensitive to borrowing limits.
In 2024, APRA kept tighter lending buffers in place (around 3%) to ensure new borrowers could handle future rate rises, one reason the market stabilised rather than surging.
Australia’s strong population growth has long underpinned housing demand. When migration slows due to border closures, visa caps, or economic uncertainty, there are simply fewer people competing for homes and rentals. This can ease price pressure, especially in major cities.
But when migration surges, as it did in 2023–25, demand for both rentals and homes can quickly outstrip supply, pushing prices higher even when interest rates are high. Demographic shifts also matter: an ageing population might downsize, freeing up family homes, while younger generations entering the market create fresh demand.
Net overseas migration topped 500,000 people in 2024, according to the ABS, a key reason prices stayed resilient despite rising rates.
Investors are another powerful force in the housing market. When rental yields (rental income compared to purchase price) fall below mortgage costs, many investors pull back. That reduced demand can weigh on prices, especially for apartments and investment-heavy suburbs.
Conversely, when rents rise, as they have across Australia since 2022 and yields improve, investors often return, adding fuel to price growth.
Investor confidence is also influenced by tax policies (like negative gearing), rental regulations, and expectations of capital gains.
According to Cotality’s August 2025 data, investor lending remains around 34% of all new loans, below pre-pandemic highs, but still enough to support ongoing competition for established properties.
With so much talk about interest rates, affordability, and migration, it’s natural to wonder what the experts think will happen next. While no forecast is perfect, most major banks and research groups publish regular outlooks that help us understand where the market might be heading.
As of October 2025, the overall message is clear: Australian house prices are expected to grow modestly in 2025–26, not crash but outcomes will differ widely between cities.
When people ask, “will house prices go down in Australia?”, what they’re really asking is whether the market will experience a broad, sustained decline. At the national level, the answer right now appears to be no, at least, not a major fall.
Across Australia, home values have slowed their pace of growth, but they haven’t gone backwards in a meaningful way. Prices rose quickly after COVID-19 due to record-low interest rates, then cooled sharply when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) began raising rates in 2022. But since mid-2023, the market has entered what economists call a soft landing, a phase where prices stabilise rather than tumble.
In simple terms:
According to CoreLogic’s September 2025 figures, national dwelling prices are up around 4.2% over the past year, a solid result considering the RBA’s cash rate has remained at 4.35% since early 2024.
That tells us two things:
These forces are pushing against each other, keeping prices mostly flat in expensive cities while driving solid growth in more affordable ones.
When economists say prices are growing more slowly, it doesn’t mean they’re collapsing, it means the pace of increases has eased. Think of it like a car slowing down from 100km/h to 40km/h. You’re still moving forward, just not as fast. That’s roughly where Australia’s housing market is today.
The RBA’s high interest rates are keeping borrowing costs elevated, which stops prices from running away again. But at the same time, strong population growth and limited housing supply prevent the market from falling too far.
That’s why most forecasts from KPMG, CBA, and PropTrack, expect prices to rise modestly (2–5%) through 2025 and 2026, then pick up again if interest rates begin to fall.
In short: The national housing market is cooling, not collapsing. Prices aren’t dropping sharply, they’re just taking a breather after a strong rebound in 2023–24.
It’s easy to think of Australia as one housing market, but in reality, it’s made up of dozens of smaller, independent markets. Each city and even each suburb responds differently depending on local supply, jobs, migration, and affordability.
Here’s a closer look at what’s happening across the major capitals in 2025:
Sydney remains Australia’s most expensive city, with a median house price above $1.4 million. After surging during the pandemic, growth has slowed because many buyers have reached their borrowing limits.
However, inner-ring suburbs and family-friendly pockets near transport are still attracting strong demand. Forecasts suggest prices will be flat to slightly positive (+1% to +3%) through 2025, supported by limited new listings and a strong labour market.
What it means: Sellers may need to be realistic with pricing, while buyers might find more negotiating room than in the boom years.
Melbourne’s market is more mixed. Population growth has slowed slightly since COVID-19, and more housing supply has returned to the market, especially in outer suburbs and high-rise precincts. As a result, analysts expect small declines of around –1% to –2% in 2025 before stabilisation in 2026.
That said, premium inner-city suburbs and lifestyle areas (like the Mornington Peninsula) continue to hold value due to strong demand from upgraders and downsizers.
What it means: Buyers have more choice; sellers need sharper marketing and pricing strategies to stand out.
Brisbane remains one of Australia’s best-performing capitals. Its relative affordability compared to Sydney and Melbourne, combined with strong population growth and low rental vacancies, continues to drive demand.
Infrastructure projects linked to the 2032 Olympics and steady interstate migration from NSW and Victoria are also boosting confidence. Forecasts point to growth of 5–7% in 2025, making Brisbane one of the standout performers nationwide.
What it means: Buyers may face competition for well-located homes; investors are showing renewed interest due to rising rents and yields.
Perth continues to top growth charts, with house prices up more than 12% year-on-year as of September 2025. The city benefits from affordable entry prices, a strong jobs market linked to mining and resources, and one of the tightest housing supplies in the country.
With rental shortages persisting and construction costs high, there’s little sign of an oversupply. Forecasters expect another 8–10% rise into 2026.
What it means: Sellers hold the upper hand. Buyers need to act decisively and may struggle to find stock.
Adelaide continues to deliver steady, sustainable growth. Home prices are expected to rise 3–4% through 2025, underpinned by relative affordability and low vacancy rates. It remains popular with families and first-home buyers who’ve been priced out of the eastern capitals.
What it means: A balanced market, good news for both buyers and sellers who value stability over volatility.
After several years of rapid gains followed by corrections in 2022–23, both Hobart and Canberra are expected to remain flat to slightly positive. Hobart’s affordability has declined, reducing demand from interstate buyers, while Canberra’s high public-sector employment is helping it hold steady.
What it means: Both cities are consolidating. Buyers have more options, but price drops are modest and short-lived.
Australia’s housing market isn’t uniform. While Perth and Brisbane continue to climb, Sydney and Melbourne are treading water, and smaller capitals are largely holding steady.
That’s why headlines about “house prices falling” can be misleading. What’s true for one region might be completely different in another.
When you’re trying to figure out where the property market is heading, it helps to understand the “signals” that experts use to read the mood of the market. Think of these like the vital signs of the housing market, just as a doctor checks your heart rate and temperature, property analysts track things like how long homes are taking to sell, how many rentals are available, and how confident buyers feel.
Here’s what these terms actually mean and how to use them.
These are your “scoreboard.” National numbers can mask local shifts, so look at your city and, where possible, your SA3/LGA. A couple of flat or negative months isn’t a crash, but three to four softer reads in a row often mark a turning point.
How to use it: Track the month-on-month change (momentum), not just annual growth. Momentum turning down while listings rise is an early warning.
When new listings rise faster than buyer demand, total stock builds. More choice for buyers = less urgency = pressure on prices, especially for generic properties.
How to use it: If total stock sits above its 3-year average and keeps climbing, expect longer campaigns and sharper discounting.
Clearance rates measure how many scheduled auctions actually sell. High clearances (typically 60–70%+ in Sydney/Melbourne) signal depth of demand; sub-50s for several weeks suggest buyers are pushing back.
How to use it: Combine with withdrawal rates (lots of last-minute withdrawals = vendor expectations too high) and sell prior shares (nervous vendors taking early offers).
This duo shows what’s happening in the rental market, which directly affects investor activity and, in turn, property prices.
When vacancies are low and rents are climbing, investors flood back in because they can earn better returns (known as rental yield). That extra competition often pushes property prices up especially for units and entry-level houses.
When vacancies rise or rents stagnate, investors pull back, reducing demand and slowing price growth.
Rule of thumb:
What it means for you:
This trio tells you how many new homes are on their way and therefore how much future competition might appear.
If a suburb has a lot of new approvals or completions, that can lead to temporary oversupply, too many homes chasing too few buyers or tenants. Prices often soften until demand catches up.
If approvals are falling or projects are being delayed, that signals tightening supply, which can support price growth in the medium term. Think of building approvals like seeds being planted, completions are the harvest. When too many crops ripen at once, prices of that crop fall.
This cluster directly affects how much buyers can afford to pay and that drives price movements more than almost anything else.
When rates or buffers rise, borrowing capacity falls meaning buyers can’t bid as high. When rates drop or buffers loosen, buyers’ budgets expand, and prices usually respond upward within months.
Simple formula:Higher rates = smaller loans = less competition = softer prices.Lower rates = bigger loans = more competition = stronger prices.
Even if money is cheap, people won’t buy homes if they’re worried about losing their job. That’s why employment and consumer sentiment are key background indicators for housing.
When job security is high and sentiment is improving, more people are willing to take on big financial commitments and that supports housing demand. When job losses rise or people feel uncertain, they hold off on upgrading or investing, which can cause prices to soften. Think of it this way: Employment is your ability to buy. Sentiment is your willingness to buy. Both need to be healthy for the market to stay strong.
This is one of the hardest questions Australian buyers face especially when prices seem unpredictable. You don’t want to rush in right before a fall, but you also don’t want to wait forever while the market quietly moves higher.
The truth is, there’s no perfect time that suits everyone. Instead of trying to time the market, the smarter move is to understand your own situation and the trade-offs involved.
It’s tempting to think prices will drop sharply and you’ll scoop up a bargain. But Australia’s housing history tells a different story.
Since the early 1990s, the market has had many slowdowns but few deep crashes. Prices dipped:
Each time, they later recovered to new highs.
Why? Because long-term demand keeps outpacing supply, thanks to population growth, limited land near cities, and steady employment. Even when prices flatten, rents rise and construction slows, helping the market rebalance.
So if you’re waiting for prices to collapse 20–30%, you might be waiting for a once-in-a-generation event and missing out on years of building equity while you rent or save.
You can’t control interest rates or migration policy. You can control:
If you plan to stay put for at least 5–7 years, small price swings usually don’t matter much. Over longer periods, time in the market beats timing the market.
Here’s a practical way to think it through.
No one knows which scenario will unfold perfectly but being ready for each puts you in control.
If you find a home that fits your life and budget, and you can comfortably afford repayments, that’s usually the right time for you, regardless of where the market is this month.
If you’re considering selling in a slower market:
You can compare high-performing agents in your area for free to see who’s selling well right now.
Buying or selling property is as much an emotional decision as a financial one. Waiting for the “perfect” moment can create endless stress and second-guessing. Instead, aim for a safe, sensible moment, when your finances are strong, your job is secure, and you’ve done your research.
The goal isn’t to pick the exact bottom or top of the market. It’s to make a confident move that fits your life.
As of October 2025, most major forecasts including KPMG, CoreLogic, and CBA predict modest growth of around 2–6% nationally in 2025–26, not a fall. Some markets like Perth and Brisbane are still rising strongly, while Sydney and Melbourne are expected to stay mostly flat. There’s little evidence of a broad decline.
House prices fall when demand weakens or supply increases. This can happen due to higher interest rates, job losses, tighter lending rules, or more homes coming onto the market. Rising unemployment or lower migration can also cool demand and lead to small price dips.
A major crash, usually defined as a fall of 20% or more nationwide, is highly unlikely under current conditions. While higher interest rates have slowed growth, strong migration, low housing supply, and stable employment act as buffers that make a deep crash improbable.
Probably not. Australia’s housing market tends to flatten or dip slightly before recovering. If you can comfortably afford a home, have stable income, and plan to hold it for several years, waiting for a big price fall could mean missing out on gradual growth or higher rents.
Most government incentives such as First Home Buyer grants or deposit guarantees tend to increase demand, which can lift prices slightly in the short term. However, they can also help more people access the market, especially when rates are high or lending is tight.
Markets with lots of new construction or stretched affordability are the most vulnerable. Parts of Melbourne’s outer suburbs and some high-rise precincts in Sydney may see small declines. Meanwhile, Perth, Brisbane, and Adelaide are still supported by tight supply and strong migration.
If house prices rise faster than wages, some buyers stay renting longer which can push rents up further. Conversely, if prices flatten and more investors return, rental supply improves, easing pressure on tenants.
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