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Home › Market Insights › Will House Prices Drop in Perth?
If you’ve been following Perth’s property market lately, you’ve probably noticed the headlines: record-low listings, surging prices and endless buyer demand. So, will house prices finally drop in Perth?
Right now, the answer is no, at least not in any broad or sustained way. Most analysts expect Perth’s housing market to keep growing through late 2025, though at a slower pace than last year’s boom. Perth house prices are tipped to rise another 5–10% this year, supported by tight housing supply and ongoing population growth.
PropTrack’s Home Price Index also shows Perth prices at their highest on record as of mid-2025, surpassing Melbourne’s median and holding firm despite higher interest rates. Analysts from Reuters add that while national growth is likely to moderate to around 4–5% per year, Perth remains one of the country’s strongest-performing capitals.
What’s driving this resilience? A combination of record-low housing stock, tight rental markets, and steady interstate migration. With buyers competing over limited listings, even modestly priced homes continue to attract strong offers. That said, growth is expected to slow as affordability tightens and interest rates stabilise. But a “crash” or steep decline is not on the horizon unless there’s a major economic shock or sudden flood of new supply.
If you’re a homeowner, this period of low stock could be your ideal time to sell, while demand remains strong and prices steady.
Key Takeaways Perth prices are unlikely to drop near-term; base case is slower growth, not decline. Low listings and tight rentals continue to support prices. Forecasts point to continued gains into 2027, with Perth among the national leaders. Sellers can still leverage scarcity; buyers should watch suburb-level stock and days on market to find opportunities.
Key Takeaways
Next Step: Right now, local agents are seeing fast turnarounds and competitive offers in many suburbs. Comparing top agents can help you find who’s achieving record sales in your area and get the best possible price while the market stays tight.
After an extraordinary two years of growth, Perth’s property market is still running hot in late 2025 even as other capital cities cool.
According to PropTrack’s May 2025 Home Price Index, Perth’s median home value climbed to around $800,000, up more than 18% year-on-year, marking a new record high. This milestone means Perth has officially surpassed Melbourne in median house prices, a reversal few would have predicted just a few years ago.
Our Perth property market data shows the median house price hovering near $735,000–$750,000 depending on suburb and property type, with unit prices edging closer to $460,000. These figures highlight that while growth has eased slightly compared to 2024, momentum remains strong.
One of the biggest forces behind this resilience is record-low supply. According to PerthNow, active listings across Greater Perth fell to their lowest levels in more than a decade in early 2025, dropping below 5,000 homes for sale, roughly half of what’s typical for a balanced market. With so few options, buyers continue to bid competitively, keeping upward pressure on prices.
Nationally, the Cotality Home Value Index recorded a modest 0.3% rise in May 2025, but Perth’s values jumped 1.1% in the same month, showing just how far ahead the WA capital remains in growth performance.
In short, Perth’s market is still in seller’s territory. Demand continues to outweigh supply, and even with minor monthly fluctuations, the broader trend remains one of strength and stability.
Most major forecasters agree: a broad price drop in Perth is unlikely in the near term. The base case is continued growth through 2025–2027, but at a slower, steadier pace than the breakneck gains of 2023–2024.
REIWA’s most recent update tips +5% to +10% growth in 2025 for Perth house prices, after ~24% growth in 2024. Tight listings and strong rental demand remain key supports, with units/townhouses likely to see comparatively stronger gains as buyers chase affordability.
PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows Perth at a price peak in 2025 and one of the nation’s best performers, but the growth rate is easing from 2024’s highs as borrowing costs and affordability bite. Expect steady, not explosive gains from here.
A Reuters survey of property analysts points to national growth of ~4% in 2025 and ~5% in 2026–2027, with Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide at the front (around ~5%). Translation: the market cools, but keeps rising and Perth remains near the top of the pack.
Domain’s FY2025–26 view (summarised by InvestSMART) suggests east-coast markets could re-accelerate as rate cuts filter through, while Perth shifts from “out-performer” to “solid grower”. That still implies upside, just not 2024-style gains.
The RBA’s August 2025 Statement on Monetary Policy notes market pricing that the cash rate could gradually decline toward ~3.1% by early 2026. Lower rates tend to support prices, but analysts don’t expect a surge, more a soft tailwind into 2026–2027.
Perth’s price strength isn’t random. It’s a mix of very low supply, strong population and rental demand, relative affordability, and interest-rate settings. Below, we explain each driver and what it means if you’re thinking of selling or buying.
Perth simply doesn’t have enough homes for sale. Active listings hit a record low of ~2,981 at the end of August 2025, as new stock failed to keep up with buyer demand. When there aren’t many properties to choose from, buyers compete harder and prices hold up.
Perth media have also reported record-low sale listings alongside rising medians in 2025, the classic combination that keeps upward pressure on prices.
WA’s population has grown strongly since borders reopened, with net overseas migration remaining elevated in the year to March 2025. More people needing homes adds demand for rentals first, then purchases, tightening vacancy and supporting prices.
Perth’s rental vacancy rate remains well below a “balanced” 2.5–3.5%, signalling a very tight rental market. Tight vacancy generally pushes rents up and encourages tenants to buy if they can, which also supports sale prices.
Perth has been cheaper than east-coast cities for years, which helped it outperform as buyers chased value. In 2025, PropTrack’s Home Price Index shows Perth is at a record price peak and has even overtaken Melbourne on median values, a sign of how far demand has carried the city. Even so, on incomes and typical mortgages, Perth is still regarded as more attainable than Sydney or Brisbane, which helps cushion prices.
Rates set the speed limit for housing. The RBA cut the cash rate to 3.60% in August 2025, noting inflation is moving toward target. Lower rates make repayments slightly easier and support prices, but the RBA still expects a gradual path, not a surge. Analysts and surveys therefore point to steady, not explosive gains into 2026–2027.
Perth’s base case is slower growth, not a fall but no market is bulletproof. Here are the realistic downside triggers and how you can monitor them in plain English.
The strongest reason Perth hasn’t fallen is very low stock. When choice is scarce, buyers compete and prices hold firm. If listing numbers jump materially and stay high for example, a move away from record-low levels toward more normal, balanced conditions, price growth could cool or even flatten. Recent reporting shows record-low sale listings alongside rising medians, which keeps pressure under prices; the risk would be a sustained reversal of that trend.
How to track it: Watch REIWA’s weekly market snapshot (total “properties for sale”). A multi-week rise toward historic averages is an early warning that the seller’s advantage is easing.
When prices and repayments outrun wages, fewer buyers can qualify demand thins and time on market rises. National analyst polling still expects steady gains through 2027, but flags stretched affordability as a key brake on momentum. If borrowing capacity is squeezed again (or costs of living rise faster than incomes), Perth’s growth could slow more than expected.
How to track it: Look for days on market rising and bigger vendor discounts (sellers cutting asking prices more to land a deal). These are classic affordability stress signals in housing data sets.
Perth is leveraged to employment, migration and credit conditions. Analysts expect slow-and-steady national price growth while rates ease gradually; if the economy surprises negatively, credit tightens, or sentiment sours, prices could stall. The same polling that keeps Perth near the leaders also notes any unexpected rate path could change the tune.
How to track it: Follow the RBA statements and monthly price indexes (if rate expectations swing sharply higher and monthly gains fade, risk is rising).
If new-home completions lift faster than expected and a wave of stock hits the market, the supply drought that’s held Perth aloft could ease. That would reduce competition at open homes and give buyers more negotiating power. For now, most commentary still points to constrained pipelines and undersupply.
How to track it: Watch REIWA listings plus monthly price momentum from PropTrack/CoreLogic/Cotality. A rising supply trend and softer monthly price prints is the combination to note.
For a broad drop, you’d likely need several of these to happen together for example, listings rising sharply, days on market lengthening, and monthly price indexes turning flat/negative, against a weaker macro backdrop. Current forecasts still point to growth through 2027, but these are the dials to keep an eye on.
A top local agent can translate listings, days on market and discounting into a pricing and timing strategy for your specific property, not just the city average.
Knowing when to act in the Perth market can feel tricky. With prices near record highs and talk of slower growth ahead, it’s natural to wonder if you should sell now, wait it out, or jump in as a buyer before prices climb again. Here’s what the data and experienced local agents suggest.
Perth’s record-low listings mean sellers still hold most of the cards. Even though price growth is slowing, there’s strong buyer competition for well-presented homes. REIWA figures show properties are selling in around 10–12 days on average, compared to 30+ days in a balanced market, that’s a clear sign demand remains high.
Selling now lets you take advantage of:
Smart tip: Don’t rush your campaign. In a high-demand market, strategic pricing (not just the highest price) can attract more buyers and result in multiple offers.
If you’re thinking of upgrading or downsizing, now might be the ideal window before new stock comes online and price momentum flattens.
Many buyers are holding off, hoping for a correction that experts don’t think is coming. Forecasts from REIWA, PropTrack and Reuters all expect continued (but slower) growth through 2027, not a fall. Waiting could mean paying more later, especially as interest rates are expected to ease slightly in 2026, which may reignite demand.
How to buy smart in this phase:
For investors, Perth remains one of the healthiest rental markets in Australia, with vacancy below 1%. Rents have surged nearly 15% in some suburbs since early 2024. While yields are high, capital growth is expected to moderate after 2025.
If you’re entering the market, look for:
If you already own an investment property, the next two years could be a great time to review rent levels and refinance while rates begin to ease.
Investors: Yields and stability make Perth attractive, even if growth softens.
Short answer: Unlikely in the near term. Most reputable forecasts point to continued growth through 2025–2027, but at a slower, steadier pace than the surge of 2023–2024. REIWA projects ~5–10% growth in 2025, and a Reuters analyst poll points to ~4% nationally in 2025 and ~5% in 2026–2027, with Perth among the leaders thanks to chronic undersupply. No broad “drop” is expected; momentum is moderating.
What could change that? A sustained spike in listings, a macro shock, or much faster-than-expected new supply. For now, Perth’s record-low stock and tight rental market continue to support prices.
Most forecasts say no. REIWA tips ~5–10% growth in 2025 and consensus points to steady gains, not a drop.
Perth’s strength is grounded in low listings, tight rentals, and migration. Watch for a listings surge or slowing monthly price prints as early warnings.
You’d likely need several pressures at once: a sharp, sustained lift in listings, weaker demand, or a macro shock. Keep an eye on REIWA listings and the monthly indices.
Cuts support demand, but analysts still expect orderly, steady growth rather than a surge through 2026–2027.
Perth even overtook Melbourne on median values in 2025, yet remains more attainable than Sydney and competitive with Brisbane, supporting demand.
Forecasts don’t point to a broad drop. If prices edge up each year, waiting can cost more than acting on a well-bought property today. Track listings and days-on-market in your target suburbs.
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