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Home › Market Insights › Understanding the Property Clock: A Guide to Market Cycles
If you’ve heard people say a market is “at 12 o’clock” or “near the bottom,” they’re talking about the Australian property clock. It’s a simple way to visualise where a market is in its cycle: boom, downturn, stagnation, or recovery and to help you make better buy, hold, and sell decisions. In this guide, you’ll learn how the property clock works, who publishes Australia’s best-known version, where the major cities sit right now, and how to put it to work in your strategy (without falling for the common traps).
The property clock is a visual metaphor that maps the property market cycle to a clock face. It helps investors and homeowners understand where their local market is today and what typically happens next.
Originally popularised in Australia by Brett Johnson in the 1980s, the clock has been used for decades to explain how markets move through recurring phases.
Before we go deeper, here’s how the classic clock layout works:
Think of the clock as a map, not a stopwatch. It shows where a market sits now, not the exact day it will turn.
Every market moves through boom, downturn, stagnation, and recovery but not on a fixed schedule. The clock captures the balance between supply and demand and the signals those forces create.
Short intro: A handful of real-world indicators help you tell the time on the clock. Watch these inputs to understand momentum.
Put together, these signals tell you whether your market is tightening (rising) or loosening (declining) and roughly where it sits on the clock.
The most widely referenced version is the Herron Todd White (HTW) Property Clock, published monthly in HTW’s Month in Review. It places dozens of capital-city and regional markets around the clock — rising, approaching peak, at peak, starting to decline, approaching bottom, at bottom, or starting to recover. HTW’s valuers compile on-the-ground observations and sales evidence across Australia, giving a consistent view each month.
Why it matters: The HTW clock is a fast, visual snapshot of momentum across markets. Used with local data (sales volumes, days on market, stock levels, rents) it helps you judge whether to buy early, ride growth, de-risk at the top, or hunt value at the bottom.
Short intro: Mid-2025 has seen a turn in sentiment, with falling rates and tight supply tilting conditions back towards growth in many cities. Here’s the high-level read.
Why the turn? The RBA’s February and May cuts reduced mortgage rates at the margin, lifting confidence, while vacancy rates remain low and new supply constrained, a mix that supports prices in most capitals, especially where migration and jobs growth are strong.
Short intro: A national clock is useful, but you buy and sell in suburbs, not in Australia as a whole. Here’s how to pinpoint the time where you live.
Want suburb-level timing tips? Read our guide to when to sell a property in 2025, plus local market snapshots like Brisbane and Adelaide.
Short intro: The clock is not a magic predictor, it’s a framework to match moves with your goals and risk profile. Here are practical plays for each phase.
Align any move with your cash flow, risk tolerance, and time horizon. If you plan to sell and buy in the same market, timing often nets out; focus on trading up effectively rather than “perfect top and bottom.”
Short intro: The property clock is a handy mental model, not a crystal ball. Here’s how to use it wisely.
Short intro: Here’s a plain-English way to use the property clock Australia framework without overcomplicating it.
Short intro: High-level reads to pair with your suburb research.
Drill down further with our Hobart market update and city-specific selling guides.
Short intro: Two quick scenarios show how to turn clock-reading into action.
You see your target Brisbane suburb classed as rising. Local stock is thin, rental vacancy is ~1%, and new listings are below average. You buy A-grade near transport and schools, accepting a tighter yield for stronger growth prospects. You fix a portion of your rate, keep a 6-month buffer, and plan value-add works in year one.
Your regional market moves to approaching peak on HTW’s clock. Clearance rates ease and new stock creeps higher. You sell a C-grade asset with ongoing capex risk, redeploy into a city start-of-recovery play, and lock in part of your rate to smooth cash flow.
As at August 2025, HTW’s clock places most markets in the rising half, with Perth and Brisbane leading momentum, Adelaide steady, Sydney stabilising, and Melbourne slower with more mixed signals. Always verify your exact city and region in the latest report
Yes, use it to narrow timing. For example, many investors prefer to buy at bottom or early recovery for upside potential. But pair the clock with suburb-level data (stock, DOM, rents) and your finances. The clock is a guide, not a guarantee.
Because local supply and demand differ. One city might face tight rentals and slow new builds, while another sees rising listings and soft demand. Macro settings like RBA rate cuts help nationally, but local conditions still rule outcomes.
It’s directionally helpful, not precise. The clock summarises current conditions from professional valuers and sales evidence. Use it to set expectations and strategy — then confirm with local data and street-level due diligence.
