September 2025 Property Clock & Market Analysis

This September 2025 Property Clock insights give sellers and buyers a clearer picture of where markets are heading this spring. Herron Todd White’s (HTW) August 2025 Month in Review clocks show that most capitals are holding steady on the “rising” side, while some unit markets are only just stabilising. Sydney shows recovery signs, Perth remains the standout, and Melbourne continues to lag under policy and sentiment pressures.

This analysis translates those August positions into September takeaways, helping you understand what it means if you’re planning to sell, hold, or buy. 

What is the Property Clock

The Property Clock is a tool created by Herron Todd White (HTW), one of Australia’s largest independent valuers. It’s a simple way of showing where each city or region sits in the property cycle.

Think of a clock face:

• 12 o’clock – Peak of market: Prices are at their highest. Buyer competition is fierce.
• 3 o’clock – Declining market: Growth has cooled, prices may fall, and homes can take longer to sell.
• 6 o’clock – Bottom of market: The market has levelled out. This is usually when conditions are most stable for buyers.
• 9 o’clock – Rising market: Prices and activity are starting to lift again. Sellers often regain an advantage.

Every month, HTW’s valuers place each capital city and key regional area on the clock based on what they’re seeing in sales, prices, listings, and rents. For September 2025, we’re working from the August Property Clock, which is the most recent data available.

What the August 2025 Clocks are Signaling

The August clocks show a clear split between markets that are peaking and declining. Brisbane houses, for example, are at peak, while Melbourne sits in decline across both houses and units.

• Sydney: Houses are in early recovery, but units are still at the bottom.
• Melbourne: Both houses and units are in decline.
• Brisbane: Houses have peaked, while units are close behind.
• Adelaide and Perth: Both are firmly in rising territory, helped by very low rental vacancies.
• Darwin: Houses are starting to decline, but surprisingly, units are rising.
• Canberra and Hobart: Both showing early recovery signs after weaker patches.

Australia’s Property Market doesn’t move in one cycle. Some cities are powering ahead, while others are stalling or finding a floor. This makes it crucial to look at your local market rather than assuming the national trend applies to you.

Houses vs Unit

Houses and units don’t always move in the same cycle. In 2025, the gap between the two is noticeable:

Houses

Herron Todd White Property Clock – August 2025

• Houses are generally leading the recovery. Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane houses are all strong.
• Sydney houses are stabilising, while Melbourne houses are still under pressure.
• Demand for houses has stayed strong since the pandemic, as families want more space

Units

Herron Todd White Property Clock – August 2025

• Units (apartments, townhouses, flats) don’t carry as much land value.
• Some are still soft (Melbourne, Hobart), while others are showing the first hints of recovery (Sydney, Brisbane). Perth’s unit market is also rising, driven by tight rental demand.
• They were hit harder in recent years as buyers prioritised space and lifestyle.
• However, rental shortages and affordability pressures are now pulling attention back to units, especially in Sydney, Brisbane, and Perth.

Why the Difference?

Houses have more land and have been in high demand post-pandemic. Units are now looking more attractive as affordability bites and renters turn into first-time buyers. For sellers, this means units may take longer to move, unless they’re in an undersupplied rental market. For buyers, units might present relative value compared to houses.

Where Each Capital City Sits on the Property Clock

Australia’s capital cities aren’t all moving in the same direction right now. The latest Herron Todd White Property Clock (August 2025) shows that while Perth and Adelaide are firmly rising, Brisbane houses have already peaked, and Melbourne remains in decline. Sydney, Canberra and Hobart are beginning to recover, while Darwin is split with houses softening but units rising. Understanding where your city sits on the clock can help you decide whether to sell quickly, hold for better conditions, or look for buying opportunities before the next upswing.

Sydney

• Houses at start of recovery; units at bottom of market.
• For sellers, Lean into presentation and realistic price guides, buyer confidence is improving, but value checks are strict. Auction campaigns can work if you’ve got strong comparables. Some buyers remain cautious, as seen in our feature on why buyers are fearful of Sydney’s housing market.
• For buyers, watch days-on-market for houses in target suburbs, if they’re shortening, step in quickly. Units may offer relative value while rents stay tight.

Melbourne

• Houses declining market; units declining market.
• For sellers,  in markets that are peaking and declining, timing and pricing diverge, Melbourne sits on the latter. Allow longer campaigns, budget for styling, and choose an agent with proof of selling in soft conditions.
• For buyers, negotiate on price and terms (longer settlement, building/repair allowances). Validate every comp; some pockets fall faster than others.

Brisbane

• Houses peak of market; units approaching peak.
• For sellers, peak conditions reward sharp campaigns, tight 3–4 week auction runs, premium photography, and disciplined reserve setting to capture urgency.
• For buyers, avoid FOMO. Compare last 4–6 weeks of sales and walk if bidding runs hot, peak phases carry overpayment risk.

Adelaide

• Houses rising market; units rising market. Vacancies are tight/severe across SA.
• For sellers, expect strong open-home traffic; still price off nearby results to avoid leaving money on the table.
• For buyers, move fast on A-grade stock; consider widening search to near-city suburbs where competition is marginally lower.

Perth 

• Houses rising market; units rising market. Rental vacancies are severely short, a key tailwind.
• For sellers, seller’s market playbook like professional prep, competitive guide, and auction or short private-treaty campaigns to harness urgency.
• For buyers, pre-approval in hand and be offer-ready; consider units for yield and entry price while houses sprint.

Canberra

• Houses start of recovery; units start of recovery.
• For sellers, use fresh spring stock to benchmark pricing; recovery phases reward well-presented homes.
• For buyers, good time to secure quality stock before competition intensifies, target properties lingering from winter.

Hobart 

• Houses start of recovery; units start of recovery (momentum is gentler than on the mainland).
• For sellers, differentiate with turnkey presentation; buyer pools are smaller, so first impressions matter.
• For buyers, inspect mid-campaign, ssellers are receptive to clean terms (unconditional finance, flexible settlement).

Darwin 

• Houses starting to decline; units rising market.
• For sellers (houses), be price-led and fix niggles before listing; extended days-on-market can erode outcomes.
• For buyers/investors (units), rising unit phase + balanced vacancies can create entry points with yield. Validate strata fees and sinking funds carefully.

What This Means if You’re Selling This Spring (September–November)

Spring is traditionally the busiest season for real estate in Australia, with more listings and more buyers out at inspections. But success isn’t just about seasonality, it’s about knowing where your market sits on the Property Clock and tailoring your approach.

• If your market is rising (Perth, Adelaide, some Sydney & Canberra segments):
  • You’re in a seller’s market. Buyers are active, listings are tight, and competition pushes up prices.
  • Strategy: Present your home well, but don’t overspend on unnecessary upgrades. Auction campaigns often generate strong results in these conditions.
  • Key tip: Price with confidence, but stay in line with comparable sales, buyers will walk away if you overreach.
• If your market is peaking (Brisbane houses, some units):
  • The market is hot, but risks cooling soon.
  • Strategy: Move quickly. Short, sharp campaigns (3–4 weeks) help capture urgency before momentum slows.
  • Key tip: Set a realistic reserve if going to auction. Sellers in markets that are peaking and declining often miss the best window by holding out for more.
• If your market is declining (Melbourne, Darwin houses):
  • Buyers hold the upper hand; they’ll negotiate hard and take longer to commit.
  • Strategy: Invest in presentation (paint, styling, small fixes) to stand out. Work closely with an agent skilled at attracting attention in softer conditions.
  • Key tip: Be flexible, longer settlements or incentives like covering strata fees can tip buyers over the line.
• If your market is bottoming or just starting recovery (Sydney units, Hobart, Canberra):
  • Activity is subdued, but you may be ahead of the curve if you list now.
  • Strategy: Price realistically, highlight rental demand (if strong in your area), and emphasise scarcity value for buyers.
  • Key tip: Work with an agent who knows how to create urgency in a market that still feels flat.

Spring is about matching your strategy to the cycle. Rising markets reward confidence; declining markets reward preparation and flexibility.

What This Means if You’re Buying or Investing

For buyers and investors, the Property Clock helps avoid overpaying at the wrong stage or missing value when conditions are improving. Here’s how to read it this September:

• If you’re buying in a rising market (Perth, Adelaide):
  • Expect strong competition, you may face multiple offers or fast auctions.
  • Strategy: Get pre-approval, move quickly, and have your deposit ready. Consider units if houses are out of reach; rental yields are strong and vacancies tight.
  • Risk: Waiting too long could see prices climb further.
• If you’re buying in a peaking market (Brisbane houses, some units):
  • Conditions favour sellers. You’ll need to be disciplined.
  • Strategy: Compare recent sales carefully, set a firm walk-away price, and don’t get caught up in FOMO bidding.
  • Risk: Buying at peak often means slower growth in the short term.
• If you’re buying in a declining market (Melbourne, Darwin houses):
  • More choice, longer days on market, and motivated sellers.
  • Strategy: Negotiate firmly, ask for extras (repairs, inclusions, settlement terms). Look for quality homes that may have been overlooked.
  • Opportunity: This is where patient buyers can secure better long-term value.
• If you’re buying in a bottoming or recovery market (Sydney units, Canberra, Hobart):
  • The market is steadying, often the best time to enter before prices move up.
  • Strategy: Target well-located homes or investment units with strong rental demand. Watch for early signs of improving clearance rates.
  • Opportunity: Buying in recovery phases often sets up the strongest gains over the next cycle.

Investor tip: Tight rental markets in Perth, Adelaide, and parts of Queensland are boosting yields. Units, often overlooked, may become the smart play as affordability pushes renters into ownership.

FAQ

Related Reads

• August 2025 Property Clock insights
• When Is The Best Time To Sell Property in 2025?
• Sydney Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2025]
• Brisbane Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [September 2025]
• Adelaide Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [August 2025]
• Perth Property Market – Prices, Trends, Forecast [August 2025]