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Home › Market Insights › Property Clock October 2025: Where Markets Sit Now
Australia’s property market continues to defy expectations in late 2025. Despite the headwinds of high living costs and past rate hikes, property values across most cities are proving remarkably resilient. According to Herron Todd White’s September 2025 Month in Review, the national housing cycle is showing signs of balance with fewer markets at the bottom and more edging toward recovery.
Heading into October, the theme is quiet confidence. While affordability challenges linger, early signs of interest rate easing, a steady inflow of migrants and students, and a persistent housing undersupply are providing solid foundations for prices. For sellers, this means market conditions remain strong in cities like Perth, Adelaide, and Brisbane. Buyers and investors, on the other hand, are watching for the next wave of opportunity as markets like Melbourne and Hobart begin to stabilise.
This article breaks down the latest data from Herron Todd White’s September 2025 Property Clock, interpreted through October’s real-time market trends. You’ll learn where each capital city and key regional centre currently sits on the cycle from rising to declining and what that means for your property decisions in the months ahead.
Key Takeaways HTW’s September 2025 Property Clock shows most cities in rising or peak stages, few are in decline. Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane remain Australia’s strongest housing markets, supported by record-low supply. Melbourne and Hobart are showing early signs of recovery, good value zones for investors. Sydney and Canberra continue to cool, but premium homes still perform. Housing undersupply remains the defining force across all markets, keeping prices steady into 2026. The property clock is a guide to timing, not a forecast, local conditions always matter.
Key Takeaways
Next Step: If you’re thinking about selling, knowing where your city sits on the property clock can help you choose the perfect time to act. Before you make a move, take a moment to compare local agents. The right agent can help you price confidently and make the most of your market’s current position.
As spring selling season hits full stride, the Australian property market is showing a more measured pace of growth compared to earlier in the year. The September HTW report highlights a mixed yet stabilising landscape with several markets still rising and others beginning to cool after strong post-pandemic runs.
Across the country, these are the main storylines shaping conditions this month:
Overall, Australia’s property landscape heading into October 2025 is one of cautious optimism. While some east coast markets are beginning to cool, others are experiencing strong upswings. The nation appears to be moving from a fragmented recovery phase toward a more synchronised, balanced cycle, a sign of underlying resilience despite economic uncertainty.
Herron Todd White’s Property Clock has long been one of Australia’s most-trusted tools for tracking market cycles. It maps property markets across 12 distinct stages, from “approaching the peak” to “starting to decline” and eventually “bottom of market” providing a visual snapshot of where each city and region sits at any given moment.
The model’s strength lies in its simplicity. By placing markets at different “hours” of the clock face, HTW helps property owners and investors understand which locations are rising, peaking, declining, or recovering giving valuable insight into timing for buying or selling.
In its September 2025 Month in Review, Herron Todd White reported a national market that’s remarkably steady, despite economic uncertainty and ongoing affordability pressures. According to their research:
It also points out that regional markets, once thought to have peaked during the pandemic boom are holding their ground, with several locations like Bundaberg, Toowoomba, and Albury now showing renewed upward momentum.
In short, Herron Todd White’s September findings paint a picture of a market in transition, not turbulence. While affordability and borrowing capacity still constrain some buyers, demand is being fuelled by record-low vacancy rates and the slow delivery of new housing stock. Australia’s property market is “balanced but undersupplied” and that equilibrium is reflected clearly in the latest property clocks for houses, units, and commercial sectors, which we’ll break down next.
HTW’s September National Property Clock: Houses places each city/region at a point in the 12-stage cycle. Below is a wrap of those positions, plus what we’re seeing on the ground in October.
HTW lists several markets still moving up the clock, including Brisbane, Bundaberg, Toowoomba and Melbourne. These appear in the “Rising Market” segment of the September clock, reflecting tight vacancies, improving demand and limited new stock.
October take: Expect continued strength in SEQ (Brisbane, Toowoomba, Bundaberg) as interstate migration and undersupply hold firm. Melbourne’s rise looks more measured, with buyers returning to affordable pockets first.
Adelaide, Perth and the Gold Coast are placed at or near Peak of Market on the September clock, consistent with low vacancies and strong absorption.
October take: Both Perth and Adelaide still show seller-favourable conditions; stock remains scarce and time-on-market low. SEQ’s coastal lifestyle appeal keeps the Gold Coast elevated.
HTW positions Sydney, Canberra and Newcastle in the Starting to Decline phase on the September clock, signalling slower price momentum after multi-year gains.
October take: We see affordability continuing to bite in Sydney and Canberra. Vendors are meeting the market, and premium-grade homes still transact well, but the depth of buyer competition is thinner than earlier in 2025.
The September clock shows Darwin, Launceston and Port Macquarie around the Bottom of Market where conditions often stabilise and savvy buyers begin re-entering.
October take: Darwin remains subdued with modest buyer pools; select Tasmanian and Mid-North Coast pockets are seeing early interest where yields stack up.
HTW places Hobart, Bathurst and Albury in Start of Recovery, indicating early, tentative improvement from prior lows.
October take: We’re seeing more open-home traffic and improved clearance on well-priced stock in these markets, especially family homes with strong owner-occupier appeal.
HTW’s National Property Clock: Units (September 2025) shows a split picture: resource-driven and lifestyle markets remain tight, while some east-coast capitals have been working through a cooling patch. The clock positions the key markets below, which we’ve interpreted with October sentiment.
Brisbane, Gladstone, Sunshine Coast are listed in the rising cohort on HTW’s September units clock, reflecting ultra-low vacancies and steady absorption of new releases. In Queensland’s detailed indicators, many unit markets continue to post “rising” or “approaching peak” signals.
October take: Inner- and near-city Brisbane stock is moving well where pricing is sharp; the Sunshine Coast remains undersupplied for quality, well-located apartments.
Perth, Gold Coast, Adelaide appear at or near peak on the September units clock, consistent with the broader strength seen across these states this year. Local indicators also show the Gold Coast trending at the pointy end of the cycle.
October take: Listings remain tight and time-on-market short in these cities. Premium, well-amenitised complexes continue to command competition.
Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra are placed in the declining segment on the September units clock, indicating softer price growth and more selective buyer activity.
October take: We’re seeing tentative stabilisation in Melbourne’s inner rings (quality, lower body corporate fees help). Sydney and Canberra remain price-sensitive; vendors are meeting the market on older stock or higher-fee buildings.
Hobart, Launceston, Townsville show start-of-recovery signals, where value-seeking investors and first-home buyers are re-engaging as affordability improves.
October take: Early buyer enquiry is up for well-located, liveable two-bedders with parking and proximity to jobs and transport.
Australia’s spring market is moving in different gears by state. Using HTW’s September 2025 Property Clock as our anchor, here’s how conditions are playing out on the ground in October and what that means for owners, buyers and investors next quarter. The big constant across the map remains structural undersupply, which HTW highlights as the defining theme of 2025, keeping prices firmer than expected despite affordability headwinds.
Sydney has shifted into a slower lane after a long upswing. Listings are a touch higher in select pockets, and buyers are more price-selective, particularly for older stock or properties needing work. Premium, well-located homes are still clearing quickly, but the depth of competition has eased compared with early 2025. Western Sydney’s land markets (e.g. Penrith LGA corridors) remain tight due to limited new supply, supporting values for family products even as overall momentum cools. (HTW places Sydney in Starting to Decline for houses and Declining for units in September.)
October watch-outs: Appraisal accuracy matters. If you’re selling, meet the market on price and presentation. Buyers can negotiate on properties with higher holding costs (strata or maintenance).
Queensland continues to set the pace. Brisbane (houses and units) sits in the Rising cohort, with very low vacancy and strong absorption through spring. Toowoomba and Bundaberg show growing momentum on HTW’s clock for houses, aided by relative affordability and lifestyle demand. The Gold Coast remains elevated (peak territory) across both houses and units, with tight listing volumes and quick days-on-market for A-grade stock.
October watch-outs: Competition is sharp for turnkey homes near jobs and transport. Investors are active where yields exceed holding costs; off-plan needs careful scrutiny on body-corp fees and build quality.
Melbourne (houses) is listed Rising on HTW’s September clock, reflecting a measured demand recovery as buyers return to value suburbs and townhouse stock. Units remain in the Declining segment, but we’re seeing tentative stabilisation in inner-ring complexes with modest fees and strong liveability. Price growth is uneven: family-friendly corridors with decent school catchments are outperforming, while compromised assets need sharper pricing to move.
October watch-outs: Expect more split results at auction. Present flawlessly and price with nearby, recent comparables not last year’s peak.
Adelaide and Perth continue to be the nation’s standouts at or near Peak of Market for both houses and units on the September clocks. Inventory remains scarce, and buyer queues persist for renovated family homes close to employment hubs. Migration and tight rental markets keep a floor under values, and time-on-market is among the lowest nationally.
October watch-outs: Sellers hold the advantage on A-grade listings. Buyers should be pre-approved and ready to move quickly; consider nearby suburbs for value.
HTW places Hobart (houses) in Start of Recovery and Launceston at Bottom/Start of Recovery depending on product type; units in both markets also show early-cycle improvement. Enquiry is rising for well-located two-to-three-bedroom homes and liveable apartments with parking. Darwin (houses) remains at the Bottom of Market, with subdued buyer pools and selective activity; yields attract some investors, but price growth is likely to be gradual.
October watch-outs: In recovering Tasmanian pockets, price discipline still matters, the best-presented homes are leading the bounce. In Darwin, focus on fundamentals (proximity to jobs, low ongoing costs).
The Herron Todd White Property Clock is a guide and it’s an incredibly useful one. By identifying where each market sits in the cycle, you can time your next move with far greater confidence. Here’s what October 2025’s positioning means for each group.
If you’re buying to live in or invest, the best opportunities often lie in markets that are just starting to recover or sitting near the bottom.
If your market is marked as Rising or at the Peak, now is an excellent time to take advantage of strong demand and limited stock.
Investors should think about both long-term capital growth and immediate cash flow.
The property clock shows where the market is, not where it’s going. Local data, suburb-level insights, and property conditions all influence timing. Use the clock as a compass, then back it up with on-the-ground research or advice from a local expert.
A quick chat with a local agent can give you clarity on market depth, buyer demand, and the right time to act.
Australia’s property market continues to show remarkable resilience heading into October 2025. Herron Todd White’s September Property Clock confirms what many buyers and sellers are already sensing, a nation of many cycles, but one underpinned by tight supply, low vacancies, and stable demand.
While Perth, Adelaide and Brisbane remain the standouts for seller confidence, markets like Melbourne, Hobart and Launceston are stirring from the bottom, hinting at recovery. Even as affordability constraints weigh on Sydney and Canberra, the broader picture is one of balance, not decline.
Heading into 2026, all signs point to a steady, undersupplied market that rewards smart timing and local knowledge. Whether you’re planning to sell or buy, understanding your city’s place on the property clock is your edge in making confident decisions.
It shows that most Australian markets are either rising or at peak, with very few in decline. Housing undersupply and steady demand are keeping prices firm despite affordability pressures.
Yes. HTW lists them as starting to decline (houses) and declining (units), but conditions are softening gradually rather than sharply.
They’re the nation’s top performers, both sitting at peak on the property clock. Low stock and continued migration-driven demand keep prices strong.
Ongoing interstate migration, low housing supply, and tight rental markets. SEQ remains one of the most undersupplied regions in Australia.
Modest shifts: early-recovery markets likely to firm, and peak markets may start plateauing. Keep an eye on HTW’s next Month in Review for confirmation.
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