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Home › Market Insights › Property Clock December 2025: Where Markets Sit Now
Australia’s property markets shifted again heading into December 2025. The latest data from Herron Todd White’s November report shows several capital cities moving further into recovery, while others are now pushing deeper into rising-market territory. Some regional areas have also surprised on the upside with stronger-than-expected momentum. This month is a useful checkpoint for anyone trying to read the market cycle because the changes are no longer subtle. They show meaningful differences between cities that are accelerating and those that are levelling out.
The property clock remains a trusted way to make sense of these movements. It helps homeowners and buyers understand whether their local market is rising, peaking, declining or sitting near the bottom. The clock is not a prediction tool. It is a snapshot of market behaviour based on real indicators such as sales volumes, supply, vacancy rates and economic conditions. With this in mind, December 2025 presents a clearer national picture than earlier in the year. Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide continue to strengthen. Sydney and Melbourne are showing more consistent signs of recovery. Darwin is the main city showing the early stages of decline. Canberra is lifting modestly but steadily.
If you are thinking about selling in the next three to six months, understanding your city’s cycle position is essential. It can help you decide when to list, how to price your property and how to compete effectively. The sections below break down where each capital city sits on the Property Clock and what it means for sellers, buyers and investors.
Key Takeaways Most Australian capitals sit in rising or early-recovery phases in December 2025. Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide remain the strongest performers with tight supply and strong buyer demand. Sydney and Melbourne continue improving as interest rate cuts support confidence and listings stabilise. Canberra and Hobart show steady, modest recovery with balanced market conditions. Darwin is the only capital showing softening conditions, with higher vacancy and weaker demand. Regional markets like the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and South West WA remain strong rising-market performers. Slower regional areas such as Alice Springs and Mount Gambier show stabilisation or early recovery rather than decline. Tight rental markets across most cities continue to push tenants toward buying, lifting demand. Early 2026 is expected to be positive for most markets, especially those already in rising phases. Sellers in rising markets may benefit from listing sooner, while buyers can still find value in early-recovery or softer markets.
Key Takeaways
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The property clock is a simple way to understand where a market sits in the real estate cycle. Every city and region moves through phases based on supply, demand, price trends and local economic conditions. These phases explain whether prices are likely rising, flattening, declining or stabilising. Markets do not move in perfect circles. They move at different speeds. They respond to interest rates, construction activity and local buyer confidence. This is why the positions of cities shift month to month.
The clock divides the cycle into six main stages:
Understanding these stages helps buyers and sellers make more informed decisions. It also highlights why two cities may be at completely different points in the cycle at the same time.
Australia’s property markets did not move in one direction in December. Instead, each capital shifted according to its own supply-and-demand pressures. The November data from HTW shows several cities already in distinct upward phases, and December continues this pattern with more confidence returning to the market.
The main national movements include:
Overall, the national cycle leans upward for most cities. Only one capital is showing early decline signals while others are moving at different speeds toward recovery or further growth. For sellers, this means conditions in many cities are stronger than 12 months ago. For buyers, it highlights where competition is intensifying and where value still exists.
Source: HTW
Each capital city is moving through the cycle at its own pace. The November HTW data confirms the starting point for each city, and December activity builds from these foundations. Below is a clear summary of where each city sits now and the forces shaping their direction.
Sydney entered November in a rising market for houses and the start of recovery for units. December reflects a strengthening but still uneven recovery. Buyer demand has improved because interest rate cuts are supporting borrowing capacity. Listing volumes remain moderate, which is helping maintain competitive conditions in desirable suburbs. Tight rental markets continue to push some tenants toward buying, although affordability remains a challenge for many.
The main drivers in December are improved economic confidence, low vacancy rates and steady sales activity. Prestige segments are performing differently across suburbs. This creates variation but does not change Sydney’s overall upward trajectory.
Melbourne sat at the start of recovery in November and December brings modest but clear improvement. Buyer sentiment has stabilised because the interest rate outlook is more predictable. The market still faces headwinds from state-level tax settings and cautious investor participation. Supply is more balanced than in Sydney or Brisbane. This is slowing the pace of recovery but not derailing it.
Demand for new homes remains strong in certain A-grade suburbs, while listings in outer areas are taking longer to convert. December places Melbourne firmly in early recovery with more consistent activity than earlier in the year.
Brisbane remained a rising market in November, supported by tight vacancy, strong buyer competition and record levels of prestige sales. December shows a continuation of these trends. Population growth and lifestyle migration are still driving demand. Limited supply across many suburbs is encouraging price resilience. The rental market is still very tight, and heightened competition continues to flow into sales.
Brisbane’s momentum remains strong, with no indicators of slowdown at this stage. The city is still one of the strongest performers nationally, and December reinforces its position near the upper end of the rising-market phase.
Perth also sat in a rising market in November, and nothing in December indicates a shift away from this. Severe housing shortages, both in the rental and sales markets, remain the defining feature. Buyer demand continues to outpace supply. Construction delays and rising build costs are still slowing the flow of new stock.
Prestige sales data in the HTW report highlights strong confidence in high-end properties, shown through notable sales and sustained buyer appetite. December conditions point to ongoing acceleration with very few factors applying downward pressure.
Adelaide was positioned in a rising market in November. December shows it continuing steadily along that path. Severe shortages of available property relative to demand are still pushing competition higher. Sales volumes are stable, and demand for quality homes remains strong.
Regional spillover also continues to influence Adelaide. Buyers priced out of eastern capitals remain active in South Australia due to its relative affordability. December places Adelaide firmly in the rising phase with stable fundamentals and no clear signs of softening.
Canberra remained in the start of the recovery phase in November, and December continues this pattern. The market is characterised by balanced vacancy rates, steady sales activity and modest economic growth. Government employment stability continues to anchor the local housing market.
While demand is not accelerating sharply, conditions are trending upward with gradual improvements in buyer confidence. Canberra’s December position sits between early recovery and stabilising growth.
Hobart entered November in the start of the recovery stage, and December shows incremental gains. Conditions remain moderate because affordability pressures and past rapid growth cycles have cooled demand. Vacancy rates are tightening slightly, which helps support prices, but buyer competition is not as strong as in Perth, Brisbane or Adelaide.
The city is still stabilising, and December suggests a slow but genuine recovery phase.
Darwin was the only capital showing starting to decline in November. December reflects similar conditions. Sales activity is stable but not strong. Vacancy trends and softer demand continue to influence the local market. Unlike other capitals, Darwin is not seeing the same uplift from improved national sentiment.
Investors remain cautious, and population turnover creates more variability in buyer demand. December confirms Darwin’s downward or flattening direction.
Several regional markets are showing stronger-than-expected momentum as the year closes. These areas are supported by severe rental shortages, limited housing stock and steady migration from the capitals. Based on the November HTW positions, the strongest performers entering December include:
The Sunshine Coast remains one of the most consistently strong markets nationwide. The November clock places it in a rising phase for both houses and units, supported by extremely tight vacancy and sustained demand for lifestyle properties. December conditions continue this pattern, with no signs of cooling in buyer competition. Limited new construction is keeping upward pressure on prices.
Both houses and units in Gold Coast held rising positions in November, and December carries this strength forward. Prestigious beachfront pockets are still attracting buyer interest, while tightly held suburbs are experiencing very low stock levels. Rental demand remains strong. These factors keep the region in a firm upward cycle.
This region also remains in the rising phase. Lifestyle appeal continues to drive buyer inquiry, although affordability constraints are evident. Even so, December shows the region maintaining momentum. Low supply relative to demand is still the dominant force.
The Southern Highlands held a rising position in November, driven by demand from Sydney buyers seeking space and lifestyle. December shows similar conditions, with low vacancy, limited listings and solid buyer appetite for quality homes.
Many South West WA markets were positioned in the rising phase for both houses and units. December conditions remain positive. Severe shortages of available property continue to drive prices higher, and local economic stability supports ongoing demand.
Across these regions, December shows consistent upward movement fuelled by tight supply, strong relative affordability or continued lifestyle demand.
If your area is in recovery or rising, the right agent can help you capture buyer competition and maximise your final sale price. See which agents perform best in your suburb today.
Some regional markets show signs of slowing or moving closer to the lower parts of the cycle. The HTW November data identifies areas where demand is either easing or where oversupply risks are beginning to emerge. December conditions sit broadly in the same pattern.
Alice Springs was positioned at the start of decline for houses and at the peak/starting to decline for units. December continues to show weakening demand. Vacancy rates are higher than average, and sales activity is steady but not strengthening. Economic uncertainty in the region appears to be weighing on confidence.
Although Darwin is a capital city, its behaviour resembles a regional market in terms of volatility. The November clock placed Darwin houses in the “starting to decline” phase. December displays similar signs. Higher vacancy and softer local economic conditions are influencing price direction.
Mount Gambier appeared at the lower end of the cycle in the November clock. December shows gradual stabilisation. These markets often move slowly because supply and demand are tightly linked to local employment rather than interstate migration.
Both areas sat at the bottom-of-market or early-recovery phases in November. December shows some positive signs. Demand is improving but remains modest. Listings remain steady, and values are stabilising after earlier declines.
The Fraser Coast was in the rising phase in November, but some indicators are softening. Vacancy pressures are easing slightly, and buyer demand is still healthy but not accelerating. December places the region in a slower rising stage rather than full growth mode.
Across slower regions, the common factors are easing demand, balanced or increasing vacancy and steady rather than lifting sales volumes. These markets are more sensitive to interest rate changes and local economic conditions.
(Based on HTW November cycle data + December interpretation)
(Based on HTW positions + December interpretation)
The property clock provides an excellent high-level snapshot, but its real value comes from understanding how these cycle positions influence decisions. December 2025 delivers clearer signals than earlier in the year. Some markets are well into rising phases, while others are stabilising or softening. Below is a practical breakdown to help you understand what this means if you’re buying or selling.
December is a favourable month for many sellers because several capitals and regional markets are in rising or early recovery phases. This creates stronger competition and improves the chances of achieving premium outcomes. Sellers should focus on timing, pricing and presentation to take advantage of the upswing.
For sellers, December provides strong tailwinds across most markets. The main exception is Darwin, where conditions are softening.
December offers very different conditions for buyers depending on location. Competitive markets may require fast decision-making and strong finance approvals, while softer markets offer time and leverage. Understanding where your target area sits on the property clock helps refine your strategy.
For buyers, December’s conditions reward research, suburb-level analysis and strong preparation. Understanding where each city sits on the property cycle helps buyers avoid overpaying in hot markets and identify timing advantages in slower ones.
Australia’s property markets are heading into 2026 with firmer footing than at the start of 2025. With interest rates easing, buyer sentiment stabilising and supply remaining tight in many cities, early-year conditions are expected to reflect a continuation of late-2025 momentum. Not all markets will move in the same direction, but several national patterns are already forming.
The start of 2026 is shaping up to be influenced by a combination of housing supply pressures, population growth and broader economic confidence. These factors are likely to determine which markets accelerate and which remain steady.
Together, these trends point to early 2026 being broadly positive, with clear differentiation between strong rising markets and steady early-recovery ones.
Based on late-2025 momentum, several cities are likely to shift positions on the property clock during the first quarter of 2026. These expectations are based on observable movements, not predictions, and reflect current signals in buyer behaviour, supply levels and local economic conditions.
Early 2026 is shaping up as a period of continued recovery and sustained rising-market activity for most of Australia, with only a few markets lagging. Buyers and sellers can expect more confidence, more activity and clearer cycle positioning than seen in early 2025.
Many markets are strengthening. Choosing the right agent now can position you for a smoother, faster and more profitable sale in early 2026.
Understanding the national property clock is helpful, but it does not replace personalised market guidance. Every property behaves differently based on its location, condition, price point and buyer pool. Speaking with a trusted local agent helps bridge the gap between broad market trends and the reality of your specific situation.
City-wide cycle positions provide a useful overview, but they can mask the micro-markets within each suburb. Factors such as school zones, development pipelines, transport upgrades and local demographics can shift the timing of demand. A property may sit in a rising city but behave like it is in a flat or stabilising market depending on:
Because of these differences, two properties just a few kilometres apart can behave completely differently on the market. This is why local expertise is essential.
A personalised property valuation gives sellers a clear, data-backed understanding of where their home sits in the current cycle. It also helps identify the right timing and strategy for listing. A detailed valuation goes beyond city averages by analysing comparable sales, local demand and buyer behaviour.
Getting this information early helps you plan with confidence instead of guessing where the market is heading. It also ensures your selling strategy aligns with your suburb’s specific cycle position.
The Property Clock for December 2025 shows most Australian capital cities moving through rising or early recovery phases. Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide remain the strongest performers. Sydney and Melbourne are progressing through early recovery. Canberra and Hobart show steady improvement. Darwin is the only capital still showing softening conditions. Many regional markets, including the Sunshine Coast, Gold Coast and South West WA, continue to strengthen.
No major capital city is positioned at the peak of the cycle in December 2025. The strongest markets are rising, not peaking. Some regional areas may be closer to peak conditions, but most capitals are either recovering or accelerating upward.
December 2025 can be a good time to buy, depending on the market. Buyers seeking value may find opportunities in early-recovery or softening markets such as Melbourne, Hobart, Mildura, Mount Gambier or Darwin. In stronger cities like Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, buyers should expect competition and act quickly. Units in many capitals are also offering more accessible entry points as they move through recovery and rising phases.
The Property Clock is a useful guide, not a prediction tool. It reflects current market behaviour based on sales activity, supply levels and economic conditions. Markets still move differently at suburb level. The clock helps identify trends, but individual property performance depends on location, demand and buyer behaviour.
The Property Clock is updated monthly. Positions shift when market conditions change, such as when demand strengthens, supply rises or economic activity improves or softens.
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