Australia’s housing market ended October 2025 with renewed momentum. While some cities are peaking, others are still gaining ground. According to Herron Todd White’s latest Month in Review, several capitals remain in the rising phase of the property clock, suggesting opportunities for sellers and long-term investors.

If you’re considering selling, timing matters. Understanding where your city sits on the property clock can help you decide whether to act now or hold off.

Next step: Compare agents in your suburb to see who’s achieving the best results in today’s market.

What Is the Property Clock and Why It Matters Now

The property clock is a simple way to visualise the market cycle. It shows whether values in a location are rising, peaking, falling, or starting to recover. Each phase reflects the balance between buyer demand, supply, and affordability.

As of October 2025, affordability remains a central theme. Herron Todd White notes that demand from new entrants is strong but is shaped by “affordability challenges, shifting regional preferences and a renewed focus on accessibility”. Listings are still 18% below the five-year average, and prices continue to rise across most capitals.

In short, Australia’s housing market remains uneven. Some cities are approaching the top of the cycle, while others have further to climb.

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Key Market Signals from October 2025

October 2025 delivered some of the strongest and clearest signals we’ve seen all year about where the Australian property cycle is heading. The month confirmed rising momentum in several capitals, continued tight supply nationally, and growing competition in affordable price brackets. These conditions all directly influenced the positions Herron Todd White assigned on the residential property clock. Below is a deeper explanation of the main indicators shaping the market right now.

National Home-Value Growth

National dwelling values continued to rise through October, driven mainly by severe stock shortages and resilient buyer demand. Herron Todd White notes that demand from new entrants is still “robust”, and this is happening at the same time as listings remain well below normal levels.

A few key forces shaped national growth in October:

• Listings 18% below the five-year average
  Buyers are competing for a limited pool of properties. This imbalance generally shortens selling times and keeps upward pressure on prices.
• Strong annual growth
  Many markets have recorded steady gains over the past 12–18 months. Older units, in particular, have seen a “remarkable uplift”, reversing their usual underperformance compared with houses.
• Government support increasing demand
  The expanded Home Guarantee Scheme and other first-homebuyer incentives helped more buyers enter the market with deposits as low as five per cent. Herron Todd White notes this has widened eligibility significantly and is pushing more entry-level buyers into detached houses and units, especially in price-sensitive areas.

These factors combined to create a month of strong, broad-based growth in both houses and units across most states.

Capital City Highlights

Capital cities showed uneven but mostly positive momentum, with the fastest rises recorded in the more affordable markets. While HTW’s report does not publish a monthly capital-city percentage table, it does reveal cycle positions which clearly reflect price pressure and demand intensity.

Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide

These three capitals sit firmly in the Rising Market phase on the HTW Property Clock. This reflects:

• Very low available stock
• High net migration (especially in Queensland and WA)
• Intensifying competition among buyers and investors
• Significant activity from first-homebuyers in units and detached houses

Perth also continues to record the lowest vacancy rate of all capitals, which is supporting price and rent growth.

Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra and Hobart

All sit near the Peak of Market. This reflects:

• Slowing quarterly growth
• Increasing affordability pressures
• Minor increases in days-on-market
• A shift in buyer focus from premium segments to mid-market or outer-suburban options

These cities are not falling yet, but the peak positioning shows that competition is flattening and buyers are becoming more selective.

Darwin

Placed in Approaching Peak, meaning the market still has some momentum but is losing pace compared with earlier in the year.

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Regional Markets

Regional Australia remains an important part of the national story. This means:

• A strong uplift in the unit/apartment sector in lifestyle-driven regional areas
• Continued demand in regions with strong economic fundamentals, good connectivity and affordability
• High buyer interest at entry-level price points and in areas close to major centres

Areas such as the Fraser Coast, Geraldton, Rockhampton, Port Macquarie, and Cairns appear in rising or recovering positions on the property clocks for both houses and units, reflecting improving buyer sentiment.

Regional WA again stands out with some of the strongest momentum nationally.

Supply, Demand and Buyer Sentiment

Herron Todd White’s national overview captures a noticeable shift in buyer psychology:

• First-homebuyer activity is up strongly, aided by:
  
  • Expanded government guarantees
  • Lower deposit requirements
  • Stamp duty concessions in some states
  • High rental costs prompting renters to purchase
    
• Demand from new entrants remains robust.
  This is significant because first-homebuyers typically act as a foundation for overall market momentum.
  
• Investor lending is rising in Queensland and Western Australia.
  Brisbane and Perth are attracting more investors due to favourable price points and rental conditions.
  
• Policy changes have created new risks.
  HTW warns that although schemes boost buying power, they may also push more activity into lower-growth suburbs, where public funds are more exposed to downturns. This is especially relevant for governments underwriting deposits or equity contributions.

Overall, sentiment remains cautiously optimistic: buyers are active and motivated, but more conscious of affordability and long-term sustainability.

Where Each Market Sits on the Clock in the October 2025 Property Clock

October 2025’s data shows that Australia is not in one single place on the property clock. Each capital city sits in a different part of the cycle for houses and units. Herron Todd White’s capital city indicator tables spell this out clearly by giving a “Stage of Property Cycle” rating for each city and dwelling type. This is what you can work with if you are deciding whether to sell, buy or hold through November 2025.

Capital city houses: who is still rising and who is slowing?

Herron Todd White’s Capital City Property Market Indicators – Houses table positions each capital as follows in October 2025.

Source: HTW Property Clock

• Sydney – Rising market
  Sydney houses are still in the rising phase. Vacancy remains tight and demand for new houses is “fair”, with stable sales volumes. This points to a market where prices are still grinding higher rather than flattening out. For sellers, that means there is still support for good prices, especially in well-located suburbs under major price caps. For buyers, it signals that competition is still strong and that waiting for big discounts in the short term may not be realistic.
  
  
• Melbourne – Declining market
  Melbourne houses are classified as a declining market even though rental vacancies are low and demand for new houses is “strong”. This suggests Melbourne has already passed the peak of its current upswing. Prices may not be falling sharply, but the cycle has moved into a softer phase where growth is patchy and some segments will underperform. Sellers may need to be more flexible on price or presentation to stand out. Buyers, on the other hand, can afford to be more selective and look for motivated vendors.
  
  
• Brisbane – Rising market
  Brisbane houses are still marked as a rising market. Vacancy is tight, demand for new houses is “fair”, and the volume of sales is steady. Combined with the separate state commentary on strong migration and investor lending, Brisbane looks firmly in the expansion phase of the clock. Sellers in family suburbs and inner-middle ring areas are likely to enjoy strong enquiry and short days on market. Buyers need to be realistic about budgets and may need to compromise on land size or distance from the CBD.
  
  
• Adelaide – Rising market
  Adelaide houses also sit in the rising market phase. HTW notes a severe shortage of available property relative to demand, which is typical of a market between early recovery and late upswing. This gives sellers strong leverage on price and conditions. For buyers, especially first-homebuyers, it may mean widening the search to more affordable outer areas or considering smaller dwellings.
  
  
• Perth – Rising market
  Perth houses are also in a rising market, with a severe shortage of stock and rising construction activity. In the broader WA indicators table, almost every key market (Perth, regional centres and South West WA) is listed as “rising market”, confirming that WA is one of the strongest housing states in October 2025. For sellers, this is a classic “lean with the market” period, where pricing slightly above recent comparable sales can still be supported if the home is well presented.
  
  
• Hobart – Start of recovery
  Hobart houses are labelled “start of recovery”, not rising or peaking. This implies Hobart has already cooled from its earlier boom and is now stabilising. Stock remains short, but buyer urgency is softer than at the peak. Sellers need to be realistic on price but are still operating in a market with limited competition. Buyers may find more choice and less pressure than during the 2021–2022 surge, especially in higher price bands.
  
  
• Darwin – Starting to decline
  Darwin houses are at “starting to decline”. That means the market has already moved past its local peak and some segments are seeing softer prices or longer selling times. For sellers, the focus should be on strong marketing, realistic pricing and choosing an agent who understands local demand drivers. Buyers should take time to compare properties and avoid overpaying for older or over-capitalised homes.
  
  
• Canberra – Start of recovery
  Canberra houses are recorded as “start of recovery”. That suggests the market has already gone through a weaker period and is now levelling out, with early signs of renewed interest. Sellers may not see the aggressive price gains of previous years, but well-located stock is still in demand. Buyers, especially public-sector workers and families, can look for opportunities before any broader upswing takes hold.

Capital city units: later-cycle strength in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth

Units often move slightly differently to houses on the property clock, because they are more sensitive to investor demand, inner-city supply and affordability. Herron Todd White’s Capital City Property Market Indicators – Units show a clear split in October 2025.

Source: HTW Property Clock

• Sydney units – Start of recovery
  Sydney units are marked as “start of recovery” with tight vacancies but only fair demand for new stock. After several years of mixed performance and regulatory changes, this suggests the apartment market is stabilising and slowly turning the corner. Sellers of well-located, larger units close to transport should see improving enquiry, while buyers may still find relative value compared with houses.
  
  
• Melbourne units – Declining market
  Melbourne units remain in a declining market phase. Vacancy is tightening but construction and sales volumes are muted. This is consistent with a market coming off a peak where some older or oversupplied stock is under price pressure. Sellers may need to compete on presentation, renovations or price to attract buyers. Buyers should focus on quality buildings, low strata risk and strong locations rather than chasing the lowest headline price.
  
  
• Brisbane units – Rising market
  Brisbane units are listed as a rising market, with solid demand and increasing new construction. This matches HTW’s national residential overview, which highlights a “remarkable uplift” in units, especially in capitals like Brisbane where renters are turning into first-homebuyers to escape rising rents. For sellers, this is a favourable phase. For buyers, it is important to act before further price growth limits choices.
  
  
• Adelaide units – Rising market
  Adelaide units are also in a rising market phase with severe stock shortages. Affordability pressures in the house market are pushing more buyers into attached stock. Sellers of well-located townhouses and low-rise units can expect strong competition. Buyers should check body-corporate costs carefully, but may still find better value here than in freestanding homes.
  
  
• Perth units – Rising market
  Perth units are another clear rising market, with severe shortages of rental stock and increasing construction. This later-cycle unit strength is consistent with Perth’s broader house market and WA’s very strong fundamentals. Sellers benefit from tight rental conditions and investors chasing yield. Buyers who have previously ignored units may now consider them as a more affordable way to access key suburbs.
  
  
• Hobart units – Start of recovery
  Hobart units share the “start of recovery” label with Sydney. The earlier boom has cooled, vacancy is still low, but price growth is more modest. Sellers should treat this as a stabilising market rather than a hot one. Buyers who were priced out in 2021–2022 may find this a more forgiving environment.
  
  
• Darwin units – Rising market
  Darwin units are in a rising market despite mixed broader conditions. This likely reflects a recovery from earlier weakness, with rental undersupply helping unit values. Sellers can lean on the improved rental story. Buyers should factor in volatility and focus on central, well-tenanted stock.
  
  
• Canberra units – Start of recovery
  Canberra units are also at “start of recovery”. The market looks to be moving out of a flatter period, with slowly improving confidence. Sellers in well-located complexes close to jobs and universities may see more enquiry. Buyers can still negotiate, but the window for “bottom of the cycle” buying is likely closing.

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What This Means for November 2025 (and Beyond)

October’s property clock positions tell us a lot about how November is shaping up. The Herron Todd White data shows that most capitals have not yet moved into the declining phase. This means the November 2025 market remains supported, but the pace of growth and the level of buyer competition depends heavily on the city.

Below is a detailed view of what sellers, buyers and investors can expect through November and into early 2026 based on cycle positions, supply conditions and buyer sentiment reported in the October file.

November Outlook for Each Market Phase

1. Rising markets: Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide

These cities are heading into November with strong momentum because the structural forces driving their growth remained unchanged during October. HTW highlights:

• very tight vacancy rates (Perth has the lowest vacancy rate nationally)
• strong migration inflows, particularly into Queensland and WA
• limited new supply across both houses and units
• rising construction costs and delays limiting new stock coming online
• very competitive entry-level buyer segments, especially for units and townhouses

What this means in November:
Values in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are likely to continue trending upward. Buyer competition should remain firm because listings are still well below historical levels. Sellers who list well-presented homes in these markets during November are well-placed to secure strong outcomes because supply pressures favour vendors. Buyers must act quickly and be prepared to compromise on land size or distance from the CBD.

These cities represent the late-rising stage of the cycle, where prices can still lift through the end of the year before slowing into 2026.

2. Start of recovery markets: Sydney, Canberra, Hobart (houses & units)

HTW places Sydney, Canberra and Hobart houses and Sydney, Canberra and Hobart units in the start of recovery category.

This phase occurs after a soft patch or a mild downturn, where the market stabilises and begins to attract cautious interest again.

Key October indicators supporting this include:

• steady or fair demand for new dwellings
• historically tight rental vacancies keeping investor interest alive
• slight increases in first-homebuyer borrowing (especially in NSW using the expanded Home Guarantee Scheme)

What this means in November:
These capitals are not booming, but they are stabilising. Sellers in popular middle-ring suburbs will see better conditions than they experienced earlier in 2025, though not as strong as the 2021–2022 peak. Expect moderate enquiry, selective buyers, and a need for strong presentation.

For buyers, this is one of the most balanced markets to participate in. Conditions are neither overheated nor falling sharply. November should offer fair negotiation power before any broader upswing occurs in early 2026.

3. Declining or softening markets: Melbourne (houses & units) and Darwin houses

Melbourne houses and units sit in the declining category, while Darwin houses are at starting to decline.

HTW’s tables also show muted sales volumes and cautious buyer demand in Melbourne, especially for units where oversupply risks and weaker investor appetite continue to weigh on prices.

What this means in November:
Melbourne and Darwin sellers may face longer days on market and more price sensitivity. November remains an active selling period, but only sellers who price realistically or offer standout presentation will capture early momentum.

Buyers in Melbourne and Darwin will see opportunities, especially in older units, secondary locations and homes needing renovation. This is the best relative value window among the capitals.

November conditions based on buyer types

For sellers

• Rising markets (Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide) favour selling in November because competition is strong and buyers are active.
• Recovery-phase markets (Sydney, Canberra, Hobart) reward sellers who prepare their homes well and price accurately.
• Softening markets (Melbourne, Darwin) require realistic pricing and agent selection that focuses on negotiation strength.

If you’re selling this month, comparing agents who understand your city’s cycle position is essential.

For buyers

• Buyers in rising markets should avoid waiting for prices to fall; HTW shows no sign of that yet.
• Buyers in recovery markets can take their time to compare properties and negotiate.
• Buyers in declining markets should conduct thorough due diligence to avoid overpaying.

For investors

• Perth and Brisbane continue to offer strong entry points, supported by rental demand and low vacancy.
• Unit markets in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are particularly attractive due to the “remarkable uplift” HTW identifies in the apartment sector.
• Investors considering Melbourne must be selective and favour established, low-strata, low-risk stock over high-rise units.

Big Picture for Early 2026

Based on October’s cycle positions:

• Rising markets likely remain strong through the first quarter of 2026.
• Recovery markets may enter a more defined upswing in early-to-mid 2026.
• Declining markets may continue to soften before stabilising mid-2026.

Australia remains a multi-speed market, and your strategy should follow the position of your specific city and suburb.

Summary of Property Cycle Phases (October 2025)

5 Practical Actions for Owners & Buyers Right Now

Understanding where each capital sits on the property clock is useful. But what you do with that information matters more. October’s data makes one thing clear. Australia is not moving through the cycle at the same speed. The right next step depends on whether your city is rising, recovering or softening.

Here are five practical and easy-to-follow actions for sellers, buyers and investors planning their next move in November 2025 and early 2026.

1. If you’re thinking of selling, match your timing to your market phase

Rising markets such as Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide still favour sellers. Stock remains tight, buyer urgency is high and well-presented homes continue to attract multiple offers. If you’re considering selling, listing earlier rather than later helps you take advantage of strong momentum before the market shifts again.

Recovery markets such as Sydney, Canberra and Hobart reward sellers who prepare thoroughly and price realistically. Buyers are active but selective, so working with an agent who understands current demand trends is essential.

If you’re selling in a softening market such as Melbourne or Darwin, presentation, pricing strategy and choosing the right agent become the key levers for a strong result.

2. If you’re buying, work out whether you should wait or move quickly

In rising markets, waiting usually means paying more later. Buyers in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide often need to move decisively on well-priced properties because competition remains firm.

In recovery markets, buyers can take a more measured approach. November offers balance. You can compare suburbs, negotiate with confidence and focus on value without the pressure of rapid price escalation.

In softening markets, buyers have the most opportunity. Melbourne and Darwin, in particular, offer greater choice and improved negotiation power. Buyers here should take the time to investigate strata health, renovation potential and sales history.

3. If you’re investing, follow the cycle and follow the rental market

Strong rental conditions often support rising property markets. Perth and Brisbane continue to benefit from extremely tight rental supply. Investors can still secure properties where yields and capital growth prospects align.

Units in rising markets such as Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth deserve close attention. They have experienced a clear uplift over the last 12–18 months, and many buyers are shifting from renting to purchasing simply because repayments compare favourably with current rent levels.

In softening markets such as Melbourne, only established, low-maintenance and well-located units should be considered. Investors should avoid stock with high levies, high turnover and weak demand.

4. If you’re unsure whether to buy or sell, get current local data

Cycle positions offer direction, but every suburb behaves differently. Some micro-markets within peak cities are still rising, while some suburbs in rising cities are starting to flatten.

A fresh, suburb-specific property value estimate helps you understand your position. It gives you up-to-date comparable sales, recent suburb trends and how your property currently sits in the market.

5. Monitor leading indicators

The most important signals between now and early 2026 are:

• levels of new listings
• auction clearance rates in major capitals
• days on market
• the flow of first-homebuyer activity
• rental vacancy and rent growth
• local construction activity and delays

These indicators tend to move ahead of the wider cycle. Tracking them monthly gives you a clearer read on whether your area is entering or exiting the next phase of the property clock.

Conclusion

October’s data confirms that Australia’s market is firmly in a multi-speed cycle. Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide are still climbing. Sydney, Canberra and Hobart are rebuilding their momentum. Melbourne and Darwin are softening and offering more choice for strategic buyers.

Heading into November 2025, the biggest advantage any homeowner or buyer can have is understanding where their local market sits on the property clock. That clarity helps you plan the right move for your financial future.

If you’re preparing to sell, this is the perfect time to compare agents, get your home ready and understand your local market. If you’re buying, the next few months may offer rare opportunities depending on your city’s phase.

FAQs

Related Readings

• August 2025 Property Clock insights
• September 2025 Property Clock Insights
• October 2025 Property Clock Insights
• When Will Australian House Prices Crash? Forecast 2025–2027
• When Is The Best Time To Sell Property in 2025?
• Australia Property Market